TOPIC: Treasure Inflation

Jamie Campbell wrote: I am going to take the other side of the market on this. We do not know the total number of tokens in the treasure by distribution. Over the past three years many have told me that the number of people looking at this forum is significantly lower as a percentage of total players playing TD. With this in mind, I don’t think we have enough data to declare that the number of URs pulled has diminished. The collective pool of people “mining” the treasure has significant increased therefore the distribution of tokens is wider and as a result, the natural percentages of a similarly tracking population would diminish.

Kinda reminds me of bitcoin mining at the beginning of the mining heyday

I will say to the postings before...my second dungeon run was the Redoubt Helm UR...and it set me forward for sure. The following year, fluorite cube...this was doing 3 pulls per run. In each of those cases, you would not see those pulls in your spreadsheet tracking mechanisms this group carries

As a group, we now carry CoA...haven’t had a UR yet...5K GP was closest

For some cons, you are correct that the sample size is too small (a few hundred.) Origins and Gencon sample sizes are quite large (nearly 10,000 draws.) For a sample to be representative of a randomized group, you need between 0.5% to 1% of the population to be able to accurately model it without a large margin of error. (I have been in charge of public polling projects - 1% would be an incredibly high target and only used if you wanted less than 1-2% margin of error.)

It’s pretty likely that the total number of draws annually is less than 1,000,000 draws (10k would be 1%). If the average person drew 5 times and every run at every con sold out (they don’t), you would have less than 350,000 draws based on the number of runs available. Therefore, a meaningful sample of Origins and GenCon would only need to be 3,500 total draws at most.

It is possible that the other cons have a completely different methodology than GC or Origins for treasure draws but we’ve been told directly by TD that they are all randomized similarly (even to the levek of showing us videos on it.)

In order for the sheets tracking draws to not be representative, everyone drawing would have to somehow do their draws differently than everyone else. We know that isn’t the case.

The math says that the Google Sheet filled put every year is representative of the overall draw population unless more than half of the respondents falsified their information (again, pretty unlikely.)

While I liked the very rich treasure mixes of some past years, I'm OK with the more diluted mix currently, if that's what True Dungeon feels is appropriate. I appreciate that there has been more of an effort recently to add some spice to treasure pulls by having more treasure box unique tokens.

I understand if it's not possible from a logistical or cost perspective, but I've always thought it would be fun if at least a percentage of the Rare and Uncommon tokens in the Treasure Boxes are a variant printing to the normal printing (even if it's just a difference in the background). That would lead to a nice treasure hunt for people that wanted to get a complete set of Rares and Uncommons with the variant printing, and would lend some additional value to those token pulls.

I can see the argument both for and against having new treasure enhancing tokens after the Ioun Stone Platinum Nugget, and for having the 2025/6 Transmute either being a new token or a reprint of the Charm of Avarice, but that discussion can wait for 2023.

I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of how much treasure is pulled by people getting the maximum and doing a large number of runs compared to the number who only do one run and/or have one enhancer. If it leans heavily towards max treasure parties doing more than 6 or so runs per con it might make sense to put a cap on max treasure per year or convention. Granted I don't know how that could be tracked or enforced.

Brokkr wrote: I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of how much treasure is pulled by people getting the maximum and doing a large number of runs compared to the number who only do one run and/or have one enhancer. If it leans heavily towards max treasure parties doing more than 6 or so runs per con it might make sense to put a cap on max treasure per year or convention. Granted I don't know how that could be tracked or enforced.

yeah something you cannot know fully. There is now data for number for runs with different treasure amounts for 2019 Gen Con only. I don’t know if that data with be shared with us, but it was collected. There is not a way to know though who ran those runs.

I think your second idea is flawed though for cons that don’t sell out, also as you say it would be almost impossible to enforce.

I'll be completing around 10 runs at PAX South in January. I'll have my CoA, S & G nugget in tow. I'll record what I get. Unless I'm miscounting, it should be 18 per successful run.

Loremaster wrote: I'll be completing around 10 runs at PAX South in January. I'll have my CoA, S & G nugget in tow. I'll record what I get. Unless I'm miscounting, it should be 18 per successful run.

20 possible, 18 minimum. Depends on what the rest of the party has.

Brokkr wrote: I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of how much treasure is pulled by people getting the maximum and doing a large number of runs compared to the number who only do one run and/or have one enhancer. If it leans heavily towards max treasure parties doing more than 6 or so runs per con it might make sense to put a cap on max treasure per year or convention. Granted I don't know how that could be tracked or enforced.

Why would you expect the numbers to be any different?

Picc wrote:

Brokkr wrote: I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of how much treasure is pulled by people getting the maximum and doing a large number of runs compared to the number who only do one run and/or have one enhancer. If it leans heavily towards max treasure parties doing more than 6 or so runs per con it might make sense to put a cap on max treasure per year or convention. Granted I don't know how that could be tracked or enforced.

Why would you expect the numbers to be any different?

I read that to mean they are curious how much treasure is got for max treasure vs how at not max or at min treasure, as well as how for people running multiple runs, not a breakdown of what their treasure pulls were.

Actually I got thinking about this and really I think it’s only a problem for veterans who have an expectation.

I actually threw away the tokens I received for the first three years I played thinking I would probably never play again.
I had no idea what the tokens rarity meant nor what they were or would eventually be worth.

Many millennials are only in it for the experience. I personally know one who played twice, volunteered once, and will probably never play again.

One of the earlier posts said pulling a UR or higher can entice new players to become serious players and collectors. Although this can and has happened (GenCon 2019), it seems a relatively weak strategy to lure new players. Even given the old token mix, it’ still relatively seldom that new players will draw those tokens. As a percentage of tokens drawn, veterans with treasure enhancers doing many more runs have a better chance of drawing the higher desirable tokens.
I understand that each draw is individually equal percentage chance but we draw a lot more tokens more often.

Bob Chasan wrote: I actually threw away the tokens I received for the first three years I played thinking I would probably never play again.

Sorry Bob, we can't be friends any more...


LOL. J/K

*laugh* My very first run, I drew an UR. Of course, I promptly lost it before even getting home.

Fred

Beertram wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote: I actually threw away the tokens I received for the first three years I played thinking I would probably never play again.

Sorry Bob, we can't be friends any more...


LOL. J/K

A couple of years after we did our 2003 Dungeon run, and I'd dove into token collecting, I went back to my friends to see if any of them had their "day and date" wooden token, and everyone but me had thrown away all their tokens.