TOPIC: 2024 Year End Treasure Stats

Scott Kwiker wrote:
Not really on point, but I don’t think the relative softening of the after-market is doing much to hurt direct token sales. Last I checked, Trent is up to Auction #22!

I don’t think Trent having conducted 22 8k auctions is an indicator of a strong primary token market.

The one year I got really invested in running auctions, I’m sure I did at least 10 and maybe as many as 20 8k orders, and that was back in 2015 or so when:

A. There was no vtd running year round

B. The Gen con adventures were less deluxe in terms of floor space / set dressing

C. There were numerous other auctioneers also running auctions, and at least two large token stores selling pyps at a flat rate of 80-100 dollars also generating 8k orders.

D. TD was doing two or perhaps 3 cons a years, no origins / San japan / pax west

If anything - there only being 20-30 8k community run auctions at this point in the year seems quite underwhelming to me - doubly so when a 1 GT per 8k order incentive is being offered (back in 2015 the ratio seemed more like 1 GT to every 2-3 8k orders and nothing was guaranteed).

Marc D wrote: Thanks for the kind words all!

David Harris wrote: Remarkably accurate! I had 2,015 pulls this past year, based on the Personal Summary and it lines up very closely with what Marc posted for expected values.

Good to see that the predictions align to reality! Hopefully we're close then

Marc, thanks for your work, thoughtful analysis and on-point write ups.

To elaborate on the writeups a bit, I'm making some assumptions based on what's been said in the past. Namely, Jeff has talked about wanting a "1 in 100" target for getting "something cool", which aligns with the old 00 rolls in older D&D editions.

I'm also keeping in mind that humans both design and administer the treasure mix. It's not like a videogame where loot drops are all RNG and can have very complex, potentially dynamic drop tables. People at TDA actually need to make the mix, so it make sense (to me) to have the rates align to big, round numbers like 1 in 100 or 1 in 500.

Not really on point, but I don’t think the relative softening of the after-market is doing much to hurt direct token sales. Last I checked, Trent is up to Auction #22!

I'd be a bit cautious about relying on Trent auctions for overall token purchase health. I understand where you're coming from, some of that activity may be transferred sales from personal (including group) 1k or 2k orders into a la carte. That is, a group of 4 friends may have ponied up $500 each for a 2k order in the past but now just order $1500 worth of auction items.

The large number of Trent's auctions also coincides with a drastic reduction in the number of forum $8K auctions that successfully fund. There were just a handful of forum auctions successfully funding so far this year. Hopefully there is a surge in token sales this year driven by the Bead of Green and perhaps a Golden Ticket in every order.

I do agree with others that Ultra-Rares are seeing the same collapse in value that we previously saw with Uncommon and then Rare tokens. It used to be very rare to see any UR sell for under $50, now it's very common to see them selling in the $20-$30 range or even lower. There are still some URs bucking the trend and increasing in value, but it seems like just a few each year.

I’m actually wondering if the golden ticket guarantee spurred more private buys this year.

Marc D wrote: I’m actually wondering if the golden ticket guarantee spurred more private buys this year.

That would be interesting to see. I guess we can compare the # of Patron Codes later in the year to past years.

Mike Steele wrote:

Marc D wrote: I’m actually wondering if the golden ticket guarantee spurred more private buys this year.

That would be interesting to see. I guess we can compare the # of Patron Codes later in the year to past years.

Have there been years where not all the Golden Tickets were sent out?

Grizwald wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Marc D wrote: I’m actually wondering if the golden ticket guarantee spurred more private buys this year.

That would be interesting to see. I guess we can compare the # of Patron Codes later in the year to past years.

Have there been years where not all the Golden Tickets were sent out?

I'm not sure, but I know they have sold out earlier in some years. I recall the year that Silver Tickets were issued once all the Golden Tickets ran out. There are other factors though, the quantity of Golden Tickets have increased over the years, and the odds of pulling one out of an $8K order have changed over the years also.