TOPIC: TD help on EB and OE spikes/helping new players

Without reading everything everyone posted. I basically think the main problem one OE/EB is the symmetry of trade good requirements in recipes. I think this is almost exclusively a safehold program created problem.

Also there has been a very large tradegood requirements inflation on legendary and relic that further pusher the pressure on these goods.

I’m just curious if after coins of wealth get created if the market settles down. I personally can say it has been the number one driver of my acquisitions of trade goods over the last year. I have totally stopped making legendary and for the most part relics this past 2 years chasing the whole safehold program.

That said if TD wanted to kill 2 birds with one stone they could do some kind of transmute to basically get the enchanters whetstone out of the market and get OE/EB back in exchange. Right now the main thing driving the price of UR weapons so low is the mistake that was the whetstone, but to ban the whetstone is a terrible look. So an insensitive to get the extras off the market could be a big win. That said there could be unexpected consequences to that as well. Just a thought.

Matthew Hayward wrote: It will be interesting to see if these prices and sustain over more than one season.

I doubt they will.

I’ve seen mystic silk as low as 75 cents some years and as high as $12 - that’s a 15x range which is a lot bigger swing than EB and OE have seen

The pressures of completing ring con admission pieces and safehold top tiers all coming about at the same time seems like a unique circumstance that is unlikely to recur any time soon.

In fact - if anyone wants to buy EB or EO for $40 each for delivery once the next new year of tokens are available - let me know! I’ll sell you some!

We doing trade good futures and short sells now?

I dislike the high price of OE and EB but I think Rob has a point.

(There, I said it.)

Some things to remember.

1. An 8K auction is still $8K. Prices move around but the pack is constant.

2. Small changes can make token values swing pretty hard.

3. A ton of stuff high end transmutes are coming up concurrently putting a ton of pressure on OE and EB as people have said.

4. There’s nothing like a Pirate Map this year propping up the low end tokens in the auctions.

5. The bottom fell out underneath the path fragment.

Looking ahead:

1. If Ben is correct the natural supply of OE and EB will increase in 2027.

2. The new multi year transmutes including 1K, 2K and 8K tokens look cool. TD also spaced out the transmute timing. They’re listening

3. It’s the best set of URs in a while. Between the set looking good, a new TE in the mix, and the multi transmutes I doubt we’ll see $50 URs

4. We might see a Pirates Map (I hope) which would prop up the price of TGs that have bottomed out.

5. The initial rush on SH1s, COWs, and other multi year transmutes will have passed.

6. I’m pretty sure more 8K auctions (and private party sales???) have gone through this year than in any other recent year. Seems token sales are strong.

7. If newer players want good tokens there are a ton of deals on Trents. You can equip a great hardcore build on the cheap these days.

Mike - good to hear that you are making EB and OE available below the current market - I suspect you'll get quite a few bites there.

A trade 1 going from $0.75 to $12 can be rough if quite a few are needed and trade 2's going from $6-$8 to $80 (or even just $50) is challenging.

Ultimately, I think people enjoy doing transmutes. Getting that new shiny in hand is fun and definitely encourages players to add more runs to use their new toy.

My suggestion is that a mechanism be put in place that would prevent/cap these swings. Setting an exchange rate that assumes even 100% higher value than average would fix this and keep most everyone happy on this front. Below is an example system - the exact exchanges aren't likely dead on but it is a starting point.

Trade 1A DP/MS/PS/AP/AI (based on roughly $2.50 each)
Trade 1B DS/MH (based on roughly $4 each)
Trade 2 Arag/EB/OE (based on roughly $12 each)

Trade 1A 4:1 for Trade 1B 16:1 for Trade 2
Trade 1B 1:1 for Trade 1A 8:1 for Trade 2
Trade 2 1:2 for Trade 1B 1:4 for Trade 1A

I created two new trade designation of Trade 1A and Trade 1B. Because DS and MH are 25 tokens each rather than 4-6 for trade 1A's, any time fewer 10 packs are in distribution we should eventually see a rise in DS and MH pricing. We've had a pretty big glut of those for a while likely because of VTDs but I would expect these to start to go up like we saw with OE and EB.

Based on today's market, that would put Trade 1A's at $2.50, Trade 1B's at $5-$6, and Trade 2's at about $16. Unless all trade goods spiked in prices, it would mellow the market pretty substantially. All these prices are higher than the averages for all those goods. I didn't propose anything on gold, in part, because I'm not sure how to fit it into this since it doesn't seem to behave like other trade 2s (1K bars.)

There would be a short term spike in the number of transmutes of people shifting their inventories around but should stabilize with occasional spikes in trade goods transmutes annually when any 1 trade good spikes or plummets. This doesn't establish a set value per token so TD doesn't face tax issues from value of inventory (ie they are still plastic tokens with an indeterminate value or value based on 10 packs/8k orders that has always been there.)

Thoughts?

I have a question for people with more experience than me (though, that isn't hard to find!): has TD ever commented on secondary market pricing? I'm sure they're aware, but I'm wondering if they care.

I don't mean that perjoratively, but rather that they just let the market exist and view adjusting the market as outside their scope as game designers. They make the tokens, sell the runs, and the rest of it is up to us. I don't know if I think that's a good or bad idea, but I just wonder if there's been any communication historically we could look to.

As far as OE/EB prices, I agree they're too high (insert meme here). I find it hard to justify actually transmuting anything because of OE/EB prices. While I've come to understand it has historically been cheaper to buy items outright rather than transmute them (typically), current EB/OE prices feel so above the others that it feels actively bad to transmute.

Jordan Kennedy wrote: I have a question for people with more experience than me (though, that isn't hard to find!): has TD ever commented on secondary market pricing? I'm sure they're aware, but I'm wondering if they care.

I don't mean that perjoratively, but rather that they just let the market exist and view adjusting the market as outside their scope as game designers. They make the tokens, sell the runs, and the rest of it is up to us. I don't know if I think that's a good or bad idea, but I just wonder if there's been any communication historically we could look to.

As far as OE/EB prices, I agree they're too high (insert meme here). I find it hard to justify actually transmuting anything because of OE/EB prices. While I've come to understand it has historically been cheaper to buy items outright rather than transmute them (typically), current EB/OE prices feel so above the others that it feels actively bad to transmute.

I don't recall them specifically commenting on secondary market prices but I know they are aware and if they didn't care they wouldn't align future transmute recipes to help offset shortages or change the mix in future sets to help. Take a look at recent recipes and the EB/OE have been adjusted downwards. And based on the 2027 Token set they've increased UC armor and weapons to provide more EB/OE. But what they feel is an acceptable secondary market price hasn't been communicated (to the best of my knowledge).

I also want to +1 what Rob said about TD being responsive on recipes. The proportions of OE/EM to trade1 have definitely been adjusted down. We definitely appreciate TD hearing us when recipes are being developed and hearing that the percentages should mostly match what we'd draw in treasure. This year is definitely an outlier with as many recipes as we have that are 1 each of all trade goods added to 1 of those being necessary for ringcon and resource heavy transmutes like mythic all happening at once.

Fred