TOPIC: 2026 Token Auction Queue

I would also like to run an auction again this year. I don't mind waiting my turn.

Same, I would like to run another Onyx 8K Super Condensed when its my turn.

Mike Steele wrote: True, except that I'm not sure we can count on relative trade item values being the same next year as this year. Recipes are different year to year, and hopefully they have been adjusted to help with chase and glut trade item tokens. I know I'm hoping Oil of Enchantment is lower next year than this year, we'll see if it is.

FWIW, I checked the transition periods for the past few years and didn't notice any pattern of huge jumps between the end of one token season and the beginning of the next. A few observations:
* 2025 had a giant spike in OE before going back to the 2024 baseline, then increasing over the year
* Most trade goods had a short-lived decrease vs. prior year end prices, most likely due to increases in price for bonus items; bonus items mean marks, rings, teeth, etc.
* Trade good prices rebounded to the baseline after the first few auctions
* Paths raised in price throughout the year

Take aways
* If you want a deal on TG, try to bid on the first few Trent auctions
* If you want more reasonable prices on PYPs and bonus items, wait a bit
* Paths seem to buck the trend, but this being the final ones who knows what they'll do

If the people in this thread want to be part of the change we want to see I'll setup a queue at the top split between Onyx and Non-Onyx auctions. I'd say we can decide order randomly (if someone has a idea how to prove the random we're all happy with. I could record myself rolling dice or something), or instead of random we use the order of intent in this post (its simple but directly benefits me so I can't earnestly push for it).

We can't enforce anything but we can at least organize amongst ourselves

Marc D wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: True, except that I'm not sure we can count on relative trade item values being the same next year as this year. Recipes are different year to year, and hopefully they have been adjusted to help with chase and glut trade item tokens. I know I'm hoping Oil of Enchantment is lower next year than this year, we'll see if it is.

FWIW, I checked the transition periods for the past few years and didn't notice any pattern of huge jumps between the end of one token season and the beginning of the next. A few observations:
* 2025 had a giant spike in OE before going back to the 2024 baseline, then increasing over the year
* Most trade goods had a short-lived decrease vs. prior year end prices, most likely due to increases in price for bonus items; bonus items mean marks, rings, teeth, etc.
* Trade good prices rebounded to the baseline after the first few auctions
* Paths raised in price throughout the year

Take aways
* If you want a deal on TG, try to bid on the first few Trent auctions
* If you want more reasonable prices on PYPs and bonus items, wait a bit
* Paths seem to buck the trend, but this being the final ones who knows what they'll do

I agree with those takeaways, that's about what I'd thought also. Ring Con might really drive higher prices for 1st Rings until Ring Con, and perhaps they'll drop afterwards.

Mike Steele wrote: I agree with those takeaways, that's about what I'd thought also. Ring Con might really drive higher prices for 1st Rings until Ring Con, and perhaps they'll drop afterwards.

I'm looking directly at the data from 2019-2025.

Also looking back at the 7th tooth, it had a price drop before Skull Con, but after transmute windows open. That was hard gated by the 2nd tooth availability, so may not be an entirely comparable situation.

I'd guess 1st ring will have fairly robust sales up until the transmute windows open again. It's also hard limited by the number of other rings out there, but there's a lot of those.

Marc D wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I agree with those takeaways, that's about what I'd thought also. Ring Con might really drive higher prices for 1st Rings until Ring Con, and perhaps they'll drop afterwards.

I'm looking directly at the data from 2019-2025.

Also looking back at the 7th tooth, it had a price drop before Skull Con, but after transmute windows open. That was hard gated by the 2nd tooth availability, so may not be an entirely comparable situation.

I'd guess 1st ring will have fairly robust sales up until the transmute windows open again. It's also hard limited by the number of other rings out there, but there's a lot of those.

I'm not sure which of the Rings is the limiting factor this time. Maybe the 5th Ring?

Mike Steele wrote: I'm not sure which of the Rings is the limiting factor this time. Maybe the 5th Ring?

Probably 3rd as that was the year with the fewest public 8k auctions.

I plan on also running an 8K ASAP. I don't think there can be any rules on who can start one when. Last year only a few early ones did well. It is certainly not like the old days when almost anyone could run multiple 8Ks back to back.

Personally, as someone who is not running an auction, I'd support all auctions coming from a queue rather than the random ones It would feel like a more fair and consistent system.

Less competition would mean the forum auctions would finish faster and in turn more auctions would fund and less people would have cold feet about placing new bids because their other bids in limbo.

Having 2 queues for different auction types would also be a good idea. (Augmented/Onyx and standard) Regardless of that though all queue participants should probably agree on a set of rules for auctions so people aren't stuck waiting on the queue. Like thresholds that need to be reached within a timeframe or how much is allowed to be taken out of the auction and at what price. Ect

So yes, I think some sort of lottery just before pre-orders start would be the way to do it. IMO a queue should be looked at favorably by buyers for auction stability.

Altorion wrote: Personally, as someone who is not running an auction, I'd support all auctions coming from a queue rather than the random ones It would feel like a more fair and consistent system.

Less competition would mean the forum auctions would finish faster and in turn more auctions would fund and less people would have cold feet about placing new bids because their other bids in limbo.

Having 2 queues for different auction types would also be a good idea. (Augmented/Onyx and standard) Regardless of that though all queue participants should probably agree on a set of rules for auctions so people aren't stuck waiting on the queue. Like thresholds that need to be reached within a timeframe or how much is allowed to be taken out of the auction and at what price. Ect

So yes, I think some sort of lottery just before pre-orders start would be the way to do it. IMO a queue should be looked at favorably by buyers for auction stability.

I absolutely support an auction queue.

I'm not as interested in an auction queue, I'm OK with people having multiple auctions to choose from. Also, if this year is similar to last year, auctions later in the queue will have a much lower chance of successfully funding.