TOPIC: Condensed Treasure for 2026 VTD?

As a person who helped with the math I think I should be able to answer some questions here. Please keep in mind that I am using hypothetical pull rates in my answers, and in no way do they mean that is what the pull rates will be in the treasure mix.

Is the ratio of URs, Relics, GF and other Treasure Box items the same as the standard treasure mix?

They are effectively identical. What that means if in the standard treasure mix you had 1% chance to pull a UR, you would have a 2.87% chance to pull one in the condensed treasure mix. The only portion of the Condensed Treasure Mix that has shrunk in any way is the Standard Pack Uncommons and Rares as they have been condensed.

Are Treasure Box only Rares and other Items still included in the Condensed Treasure Mix?

Yes, and your effective chances to pull them are identical to the standard treasure mix.

Can we get some possible examples as to how a condensed treasure pack might look like?

Using the 27:10 Ratio, if you were to receive a treasure pull of:
Standard Pack Rare #1
Standard Pack Rare #2
Standard Pack Rare #3
Standard Pack Rare #4
Standard Pack Rare #5
Standard Pack Rare #6
Standard Pack Rare #7
Standard Pack Rare #8
Standard Pack Rare #9
Standard Pack Rare #10
Standard Pack Uncommon #1
Standard Pack Uncommon #2
Standard Pack Uncommon #3
Standard Pack Uncommon #4
Standard Pack Uncommon #5
Standard Pack Uncommon #6
Standard Pack Uncommon #7
Standard Pack Uncommon #8
Standard Pack Uncommon #9
Standard Pack Uncommon #10
Monster Bit #1
Monster Bit #2
Chase Token #1
Chase Token #2
Treasure Box Rare #1
UR#1
Relic#1

The Condensed Treasure Pull equivalent would roughly be:
Trade Good #1
Trade Good #2
Trade Good #3
Monster Bit #1
Monster Bit #2
Chase Token #1
Chase Token #2
Treasure Box Rare #1
UR#1
Relic#1

Note: This is not an example of how likely you are to pull any item over the other, just an example of what a Condensed Treasure pull would be.

Jeff Martin wrote: I was remiss in not thanking Marc D for his mad math skillz as well. Thanks Marc D!

You are quite welcome, although Impy had it covered! All I did was catch one small bug in a formula and validate Impy's already excellent math!

I think this is a great idea. Thanks to everyone that worked on this.

I have one question (in multiple subparts). How will the distribution within the trade goods be determined? For example, are you calculating what the overall distribution of rares and uncommons would be toward particular trade goods? If so, are you able to share the distribution within the trade goods category? I assume there would be neither Dwarven Steel nor Minotaur Hide since those come from commons, and the rest would be mixed together in the ratios in which mulching would produce in the long run. Of course, if there are only three trade goods per pack, there would be random variation in what you'd get in the short run.

This is a great idea. Much thanks to everyone who contributed to putting it together. I also love that it's optional. For 2025, it's something I'm likely to take advantage of, at least I'll see how it goes.

My problem if this had been a thing in 2024 is the occasional consumable that provides a small boost to my build. Combined with the Totem of Wonder, Surtr's Runestone and Valkyrie Runestone were something I was able to equip in about 80% of my runs this year. And that's only because I pulled at least 70 of each. Likewise, Volva's Hearty Ration seemed like a free 3 hp. I used those in all my Epic runs and probably have enough to keep doing that for another year or two.

Next year there's an item or two, like some of the Fate cards and the Saintly Runestone that might be nice to have, but I'm less excited about them. I'll also miss all the dust and powder tokens I like to accumulate, but typically only use those in a few rooms over the course of the weekend and likely have enough to keep doing that for a few more years.

All things considered, I still think this is great. Let's see how it works out.

I would absolutely do this, another thought to save on cost would be to bank treasure pulls. I would be all in on saving my pulls until they fill a small flat rate or even until a convention and just pick them up in person. Get all my treasure heartbreak out in one shot.

I'd much rather get treasure chips than pulls. Much easier to move to others or deal with at a con. But, then, I'm sure they are not so great for being mailed in.

Manimal wrote: I have one question (in multiple subparts). How will the distribution within the trade goods be determined? For example, are you calculating what the overall distribution of rares and uncommons would be toward particular trade goods? If so, are you able to share the distribution within the trade goods category?

The Ratio of the Condensed Trade Good is explained in the first post.

Jeff Martin wrote: The Trade Good Portion of the treasure mix is mixed in an identical ratio of this year's Uncommons and Rares Trade Good value. Thus, the trade goods you receive will be identical in proportion of each trade good to as if you had been sending in the Standard Pack Uncommons and Rares from the Treasure Mix for mulching.
This is all to say this mix is calculated in such a way there should be ZERO % dilution in treasure value when compared to the normal mix.

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Manimal wrote: I assume there would be neither Dwarven Steel nor Minotaur Hide since those come from commons, and the rest would be mixed together in the ratios in which mulching would produce in the long run.

There will be no additional Dwarven Steel or Minotaur Hide added to the mix from this change.

To further answer on TG ratios, assume a statistical normal distribution. So if you had 100 treasure pulls with 40% uncommon and 40% rare, you’d have a full set of UC and rare.

The big change imo is that TG accumulation is now binary. Either you get an OE or you don’t. You don’t get fractional TG - no 5 uncommon armors to get you 20% of the way there.

Distribution should be even over the entire set of treasure pulls. That said, odds can be streaky so sure you may get 3 OE in one go then not see one for a year. Take from that what you will.

I'm excited to try this. I see myself taking condensed packs when there's an option because there's always a couple of runs per weekend that don't have full TGs (for me anyway, where I only have me and my partner's sets). So I'll still get the fun of cracking the full 20 packs while also cutting down on waste.

Thanks for the innovation!

I’m in for this idea!

payden wrote: I would absolutely do this, another thought to save on cost would be to bank treasure pulls. I would be all in on saving my pulls until they fill a small flat rate or even until a convention and just pick them up in person. Get all my treasure heartbreak out in one shot.

I would be ok with this as well.

Missing out on consumables that i use and give out for in person runs is the only downside I see here.

If the group had less than 10 COAs would that cancel out the ability to do the 10 pack? If so the utility for TD will be more limited and the new system might have some unintended consequences.