TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Matthew Hayward wrote: I'm curious what your account of why fleece is selling at it's lowest price in the history of True Dungeon would be?

Chart the eBay sales over the last 3 months. If there are not at least 3 indicators .. it isn't a 'trend'. If you can find three consecutive indicators without a spike in between, your trend is validated.

It just feels like we are taking a micro slice in time and trying to fit our logic into an existing preconception.

This is the same reason a lunch manager in a restaurant will swear that hamburger sales are 'up again this week' even if the establishment is actually selling less hamburgers .. too narrow a time-slice to see the actual trend.

Also : To Kirk's point. If next year we see a 3 year 'bits' redemption, people will start hording their fleece again. Right now there is nothing for a new person to 'use' it on .. and they might not understand that, historically, bits can get turned in for a transmutation - so they are willing to sell a 'useless' token for anything they can get.

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
1. Recently Fleece has been selling on the open market for $50. This is an unprecedentedly low price.

That unprecedentedly low price is on $5 to $10 lower than its previous low point. That seem on par with the swings we have seen with other trade goods, imo.

When I started collecting, Steel were $2.50 and Hides were $10. Now they're $4.

A couple years later, Silks were $10, now they're $3

Planks and Munitions were much higher in the Bows. Munitions are half their high, and Planks are laughable.

And five years ago, I remember Fleece being $60. They went up for Icecrags, and as a result of Gertz box-induced shortages in 2013. People wanted all their trophies for Earcuffs, and that shortage drove up the price of Fleece.

You're assuming, based on a couple of years, that $100/Fleece is the norm, and you conclude that Fleece should be exempt from the fluctuations seen in every other trade good, and their prices should be propped up near their historic highs.

I don't agree, based on a look back more than just a year.

Speaking as a newer collector (I had been doing TD at GenCon for 3 years prior but not paying much attention), fleece costs coming down isn't a bad thing. For the people newer to entry as opposed to many years, it would allow us to organically gather enough to transmute on our own. I know that hurts the stores a small amount but that is more than offset by having more players.

Realistically, we don't want a 3 or 4 point combo item to require fleece if the intent is to get newer players to get interested in transmuting, etc.. It precluded them from being able to do it themselves. Requiring items that can be had via a few runs and putting in an order with TD itself (like the $250 orders) promotes growth of TD while helping Jeff to earn more money (some of which, I'm sure, will turn into even better TD runs for us).

I would keep it where only legendary items require fleece. By the time you are looking at doing one of those, you have been doing TD for a couple/few years.

Fred

Good points, Fred.

In my mind, the question isn't "why are Fleece dropping, and how do we stop it."

The question is, why did they jump so much in 2013 (my opinion, Wertz) and why are they going down again (again, IMO, Icecrags is OOP, CoA creation is slowing down, and, sure, more treasure pulls from all those new CoAs, Nuggets, and cons).

EDIT: yes, and RoH

Don't forget RoH.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
1. Recently Fleece has been selling on the open market for $50. This is an unprecedentedly low price.

That unprecedentedly low price is on $5 to $10 lower than its previous low point. That seem on par with the swings we have seen with other trade goods, imo.

When I started collecting, Steel were $2.50 and Hides were $10. Now they're $4.

A couple years later, Silks were $10, now they're $3

Planks and Munitions were much higher in the Bows. Munitions are half their high, and Planks are laughable.

And five years ago, I remember Fleece being $60. They went up for Icecrags, and as a result of Gertz box-induced shortages in 2013. People wanted all their trophies for Earcuffs, and that shortage drove up the price of Fleece.

You're assuming, based on a couple of years, that $100/Fleece is the norm, and you conclude that Fleece should be exempt from the fluctuations seen in every other trade good, and their prices should be propped up near their historic highs.

I don't agree, based on a look back more than just a year.

Keep in mind, the reason other trade item tokens went from oversupply to non-oversupply is because recipes were made to use up more of them. Which is what's being suggested here.

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:
1. Recently Fleece has been selling on the open market for $50. This is an unprecedentedly low price.

That unprecedentedly low price is on $5 to $10 lower than its previous low point. That seem on par with the swings we have seen with other trade goods, imo.

When I started collecting, Steel were $2.50 and Hides were $10. Now they're $4.

A couple years later, Silks were $10, now they're $3

Planks and Munitions were much higher in the Bows. Munitions are half their high, and Planks are laughable.

And five years ago, I remember Fleece being $60. They went up for Icecrags, and as a result of Gertz box-induced shortages in 2013. People wanted all their trophies for Earcuffs, and that shortage drove up the price of Fleece.

You're assuming, based on a couple of years, that $100/Fleece is the norm, and you conclude that Fleece should be exempt from the fluctuations seen in every other trade good, and their prices should be propped up near their historic highs.

I don't agree, based on a look back more than just a year.

Keep in mind, the reason other trade item tokens went from oversupply to non-oversupply is because recipes were made to use up more of them. Which is what's being suggested here.

We just did that with Fleece! Keep in mind, we just got to the end of the "soak up excess" cycle with RoH going out of print. What is unprecedented here is that people want to extend it.

Also, keep in mind those recipes weren't designed to keep trade goods at inflated prices. They were to absorb goods that nobody had any other use for.

No one called for new Cloaks/Bows/etc to keep the price of Silks and Planks at their temporary highs indefinitely. For some reason, some want to do that with Fleece.

What's being suggested is new recipes with the stated purpose to keep Fleece at their temporary high points, before we even know there is a glut. Every other trade good is permitted to retreat back to its "normal" price and rest a few years before restarting the cycle.

Plus, there is already a mechanism for soaking up monster bits - use them instead of 300gp in low level transmutes. That isn't built into any other trade token.

In the meantime, $50-60 Fleece is not an indication of over-supply. It's just things going back to "normal." They've overshot Normal slightly, but prices often do oscillate around their final value before they stabilize.

And the story arc token hasn't even been announced yet. It is, IMO, way too soon to panic.

I grant you, anyone who just started paying attention to prices and stockpiled Fleece at their high probably feels like the world is ending. That's why you can't just look at a one- or two-year snapshot and extrapolate to apocalypse.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Treasure pulls are up say 50%.

Maybe. Maybe much less.

Sold tokens are not up by 50%. We don't know how much they are up (or down) but it strains credulity that the figure could exceed even 25%.

Maybe it strains yours. Not mine.

Based on an admittedly limited sample, five years ago GTs averaged about one per $5-6k in purchases

Now, it's more like one per $20k

THAT is the part of the equation you're ignoring. Based on those estimates, token sales are up an average of 30% PER YEAR for the last five years. You're focused on a one-time spike of MAYBE 50% (total guess) which is swamped by five years of continuous growth in online sales (another guess.)

If anything, the increase in trophy pulling is a move towards restoring the historical balance between all 12 trade goods.

As you say, it's all based on wild guesses. One guy knows for sure which of us is closer to being correct, and he's not talking.

I'm talking about the last year or two, not a 5 year horizon, over which time I'd agree I don't think we know enough about pulls versus treasure token sales.

But, here are facts, no conjecture:

1. Recently Fleece has been selling on the open market for $50. This is an unprecedentedly low price.

2. Monster Trophies are only available in treasure pulls.

3. Here is the trajectory of available treasure pulls for the last few years:

* 2014 - Gen Con only.

* 2015 - Gen Con and extremely limited presentation at WYC. Amulet of Treasure Finding and Charm of Avarice Introduced.

* 2016 - Gen Con, WYC, and GHC

* 2017 - TDC, Gen Con, and GHC. Ioun Stone Silver Nugget introduced.

So, in 3 years we've seen TD treasure pulls go from 1 presentation a year to 3, we've seen AoTF, CoA (granting HoP effect to those who didn't have them), and ISSN come online as treasure boosters.

4. In terms of recipes for monster bits, Ring of Heroism was in print and transmutable from 2015-May 2017, was transmuted in such quantities that TD ran out, and is no longer around to soak up Monster bits/fleece.



You can feel free to dispute that validity of my model (that fleece supply is growing faster than other trade goods).

To do so you must believe, as a matter of mathematical necessity, that the ratio of tokens sold in 2017 versus that in 2015 is greater than the ratio of monster bits pulled from treasure in 2017 versus 2015. To me that is pretty wild.


But! No matter what you assume in that regard, the fact remains that the market price of Fleece has tanked to unprecedentedly low levels, and that my model both explains this, and predicted the drop in prices.

I'm curious what your account of why fleece is selling at it's lowest price in the history of True Dungeon would be?

+1 to this analysis. People have a boat load of Fleece because there have been a boat load more pulls. And this is the first year for the new transmute and Fleece is dropping even as people have horded up the 2016 bits. Like i said before i know people that have over 100 sets of 2016 bits they are hanging on to. I believe the price will continue to trend down as Gen Con gets here and Token pulls go crazy wild with all the new CoA's and Nuggets out there that stack with them. But....I could be wrong. We'll see.

Rob F wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Treasure pulls are up say 50%.

Maybe. Maybe much less.

Sold tokens are not up by 50%. We don't know how much they are up (or down) but it strains credulity that the figure could exceed even 25%.

Maybe it strains yours. Not mine.

Based on an admittedly limited sample, five years ago GTs averaged about one per $5-6k in purchases

Now, it's more like one per $20k

THAT is the part of the equation you're ignoring. Based on those estimates, token sales are up an average of 30% PER YEAR for the last five years. You're focused on a one-time spike of MAYBE 50% (total guess) which is swamped by five years of continuous growth in online sales (another guess.)

If anything, the increase in trophy pulling is a move towards restoring the historical balance between all 12 trade goods.

As you say, it's all based on wild guesses. One guy knows for sure which of us is closer to being correct, and he's not talking.

I'm talking about the last year or two, not a 5 year horizon, over which time I'd agree I don't think we know enough about pulls versus treasure token sales.

But, here are facts, no conjecture:

1. Recently Fleece has been selling on the open market for $50. This is an unprecedentedly low price.

2. Monster Trophies are only available in treasure pulls.

3. Here is the trajectory of available treasure pulls for the last few years:

* 2014 - Gen Con only.

* 2015 - Gen Con and extremely limited presentation at WYC. Amulet of Treasure Finding and Charm of Avarice Introduced.

* 2016 - Gen Con, WYC, and GHC

* 2017 - TDC, Gen Con, and GHC. Ioun Stone Silver Nugget introduced.

So, in 3 years we've seen TD treasure pulls go from 1 presentation a year to 3, we've seen AoTF, CoA (granting HoP effect to those who didn't have them), and ISSN come online as treasure boosters.

4. In terms of recipes for monster bits, Ring of Heroism was in print and transmutable from 2015-May 2017, was transmuted in such quantities that TD ran out, and is no longer around to soak up Monster bits/fleece.



You can feel free to dispute that validity of my model (that fleece supply is growing faster than other trade goods).

To do so you must believe, as a matter of mathematical necessity, that the ratio of tokens sold in 2017 versus that in 2015 is greater than the ratio of monster bits pulled from treasure in 2017 versus 2015. To me that is pretty wild.


But! No matter what you assume in that regard, the fact remains that the market price of Fleece has tanked to unprecedentedly low levels, and that my model both explains this, and predicted the drop in prices.

I'm curious what your account of why fleece is selling at it's lowest price in the history of True Dungeon would be?

+1 to this analysis. People have a boat load of Fleece because there have been a boat load more pulls. And this is the first year for the new transmute and Fleece is dropping even as people have horded up the 2016 bits. Like i said before i know people that have over 100 sets of 2016 bits they are hanging on to. I believe the price will continue to trend down as Gen Con gets here and Token pulls go crazy wild with all the new CoA's and Nuggets out there that stack with them. But....I could be wrong. We'll see.

100 sets of 2016 MB's. That would be impressive. With all my pulls I couldn't have done 75. And I don't have piles of fleeces. Really curiuous were these folks got them.

You would need around 2500 treasure pulls to accumulate 400 trophies. I find that pretty implausible.

Harlax wrote: You would need around 2500 treasure pulls to accumulate 400 trophies. I find that pretty implausible.

You guys are forgetting about trades too.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote:

Harlax wrote: You would need around 2500 treasure pulls to accumulate 400 trophies. I find that pretty implausible.

You guys are forgetting about trades too.

No, I figured they had to be from trades. But that doesn't really count for being flush with them. If you are actively attempting to accumulate that many, imo.