TOPIC: 2024 Year End Treasure Stats

One thought on relic and legendary availability in treasure.

If we've sussed out correctly that a Legendary is 1 in 2000 pulls, let's see what else those 2000 pulls give us. Ignoring all transmutes and "appreciation" items, we're looking at expected values of:
Ultra Rares: 10
Monster Bits: 162.4
Rare: 835
50 GP Idol: 126.2
Treasure Box Beads and Charms: 45
Uncommon: 767.4
1,000 GP Bar: 4.6
10x Trade: 3.8
5,000 GP Bar: 0.6
Averon's Cherry Ale: 4.4
Golden Fleece : 0.4
Trade 1: 8.8
Trade 2: 2.6

I'll spare people another table breaking down the expected values of trade goods from the uncommons and rares, because what's important is what you can do with those tokens: craft.

Those 2000 pulls are definitely enough to craft the 2024 legendary gloves, plus or minus the hide, steel and some GP for the wish ring (which you could probably trade your excess URs for).

Things aren't quite as easy with the 2024 legendary sword: You come up a bit short on parchment, bismuth, oil and stone. (This is in addition to the wish ring, same as above.)

So, someone doing enough runs to pull a legendary with any regularity is doing enough runs to make that legendary anyhow.

Final thought: 2000 pulls is 80 individual slots at 25 treasure each (8 full runs). Or roughly $6400 to TDA.

Marc - thank you for collating the data and doing the analysis - interesting stuff!

Rob F wrote: I highly doubt there were 20+ Legendaries given out back in the day when there wasn't VTD.

While not authoritative, I seem to recall statements from TPTB that implied treasure batches containing one single copy of high end tokens like legendaries (and maybe current year eldritch transmutes).

Of course - were up to 40 legendaries so if the treasure mix has only a single copy of each that’s still 40 per year.

I also have the impression that in years past there was but one, or a few treasure batches. I can recall a forum post or newsletter that describes volunteer and old school token dealer Dial Hernandez (forum name Eversuede) preparing the mix next to a cement mixer (mixer the size of a washing machine, not a cement truck).

I get the impression treasure generation is much more continuous now, and has been for a while - I seem to recall a pause on treasure pulls at one of the walkers bluff events while they mixed up some new treasure (but my memory is spotty so take that with a grain of salt).

Matthew Hayward wrote: Marc - thank you for collating the data and doing the analysis - interesting stuff!

You are quite welcome!

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote: I highly doubt there were 20+ Legendaries given out back in the day when there wasn't VTD.

While not authoritative, I seem to recall statements from TPTB that implied treasure batches containing one single copy of high end tokens like legendaries (and maybe current year eldritch transmutes).

Of course - were up to 40 legendaries so if the treasure mix has only a single copy of each that’s still 40 per year.

I also have the impression that in years past there was but one, or a few treasure batches. I can recall a forum post or newsletter that describes volunteer and old school token dealer Dial Hernandez preparing the mix next to a cement mixer (mixer the size of a washing machine, not a cement truck).

I get the impression treasure generation is much more continuous now, and has been for a while - I seem to recall a pause on treasure pulls at one of the walkers bluff events while they mixed up some new treasure (but my memory is spotty so take that with a grain of salt).

The treasure boxes normally only contained current year transmutes, correct? I'm a bit confused by your statement that there were 40 different Legendary tokens, I may just be misunderstanding.

Endgame wrote: I like the idea of pulling all the high end stuff out of treasure. That should sufficiently devalue TEs that maybe they don’t end up in every build

They would all still be in my build.

Mike Steele wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote: I highly doubt there were 20+ Legendaries given out back in the day when there wasn't VTD.

While not authoritative, I seem to recall statements from TPTB that implied treasure batches containing one single copy of high end tokens like legendaries (and maybe current year eldritch transmutes).

Of course - were up to 40 legendaries so if the treasure mix has only a single copy of each that’s still 40 per year.

I also have the impression that in years past there was but one, or a few treasure batches. I can recall a forum post or newsletter that describes volunteer and old school token dealer Dial Hernandez preparing the mix next to a cement mixer (mixer the size of a washing machine, not a cement truck).

I get the impression treasure generation is much more continuous now, and has been for a while - I seem to recall a pause on treasure pulls at one of the walkers bluff events while they mixed up some new treasure (but my memory is spotty so take that with a grain of salt).

The treasure boxes normally only contained current year transmutes, correct? I'm a bit confused by your statement that there were 40 different Legendary tokens, I may just be misunderstanding.

People have pulled older Legendaries, not just current year. And I recall seeing a post on Discord that older Relic's get tossed in too. They come to TD from a transmute and instead of just being destroyed a few go into the mix.

Marc D wrote: One thought on relic and legendary availability in treasure.

If we've sussed out correctly that a Legendary is 1 in 2000 pulls, let's see what else those 2000 pulls give us. Ignoring all transmutes and "appreciation" items, we're looking at expected values of:
Ultra Rares: 10
Monster Bits: 162.4
Rare: 835
50 GP Idol: 126.2
Treasure Box Beads and Charms: 45
Uncommon: 767.4
1,000 GP Bar: 4.6
10x Trade: 3.8
5,000 GP Bar: 0.6
Averon's Cherry Ale: 4.4
Golden Fleece : 0.4
Trade 1: 8.8
Trade 2: 2.6

David Harris +3 Savage Sword 1
1,000 GP Bar 3
10x Trade 2
25,000 GP Bar 1
50 GP Idol 130
Averon's Cherry Ale 9
Enhanced (3 point) 8
Exalted (4 point) 5
Golden Fleece 2
Greater Gloves of the Gladiator 1
Monster Bits 170
Rare 820
Ring of the 3rd Circle 3
Silver Ship Outpost Nil 9
Trade 1 7
Trade 2 2
Treasure Box Beads and Charms 41
Ultra Rare 6
Uncommon 795
David Harris Total 2015

Remarkably accurate! I had 2,015 pulls this past year, based on the Personal Summary and it lines up very closely with what Marc posted for expected values. I did not pull a legendary...but one of the players I run with did pull one at GHC on a run we did together. Also my UR pulls were light but I did pull 3 Rot3C and 9 Outpost Nils, so more than makes up for it.

Thanks again for the analysis Marc!!

Marc, thanks for your work, thoughtful analysis and on-point write ups.

I’d be sad, and perhaps a bit angry, if the relics, legendary and URs were pulled from treasure. And this is coming from someone who’s played the game since 2008, reached 9th level, and pulled one (and only one) UR or better after either a run or trading in something like a pirate treasure map. It’d also be a really dumb business move, I think, to yank these.

People love lotteries and loyalty programs. Treasure pulls are like chocolate meets peanut butter. The treasure pull is part of the excitement and thrill of the game. As Marc highlights, someone like David has sunk at least $6K into the privilege of pulling 2000 tokens. My guess his 80 runs last year cost at least $8K since Con runs are more expensive. I don’t begrudge him for a second his treasure haul.

I doubt that treasure pulls are what’s depressing the token after-market. Long time players with big collections leaving the game in appreciable numbers and selling or consigning their collections is almost certainly the larger factor. That cost suppression might actually be good for drawing in more players and TD revenue as well.

Not really on point, but I don’t think the relative softening of the after-market is doing much to hurt direct token sales. Last I checked, Trent is up to Auction #22!

Thanks for managing this spreadsheet, Marc!

Mike Steele wrote: The treasure boxes normally only contained current year transmutes, correct?

Maybe at some point, but that hasn't been true in a while. See for example this person who pulled a 2018 Pern's Redoubt Helm a few weeks back:

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=565&id=258217#462386

I'm a bit confused by your statement that there were 40 different Legendary tokens, I may just be misunderstanding.

My post was missing an apostrophe, leading it to say "were" where I meant "we're" - I was trying to convey:

True Dungeon now has 40 different legendary tokens. If each annual treasure mix contained a single copy of each legendary, that would amount to 40 legendaries in the mix.

Thanks for the kind words all!

David Harris wrote: Remarkably accurate! I had 2,015 pulls this past year, based on the Personal Summary and it lines up very closely with what Marc posted for expected values.

Good to see that the predictions align to reality! Hopefully we're close then

Marc, thanks for your work, thoughtful analysis and on-point write ups.

To elaborate on the writeups a bit, I'm making some assumptions based on what's been said in the past. Namely, Jeff has talked about wanting a "1 in 100" target for getting "something cool", which aligns with the old 00 rolls in older D&D editions.

I'm also keeping in mind that humans both design and administer the treasure mix. It's not like a videogame where loot drops are all RNG and can have very complex, potentially dynamic drop tables. People at TDA actually need to make the mix, so it make sense (to me) to have the rates align to big, round numbers like 1 in 100 or 1 in 500.

Not really on point, but I don’t think the relative softening of the after-market is doing much to hurt direct token sales. Last I checked, Trent is up to Auction #22!

I'd be a bit cautious about relying on Trent auctions for overall token purchase health. I understand where you're coming from, some of that activity may be transferred sales from personal (including group) 1k or 2k orders into a la carte. That is, a group of 4 friends may have ponied up $500 each for a 2k order in the past but now just order $1500 worth of auction items.