TOPIC: TD help on EB and OE spikes/helping new players

Every year we see some trade1 good increasing from $1-$2 to up to $10. Occasionally, we'll see GF go from $35 to $80 or gold go from $10 per 1K to $20 per 1K. This year's trade good challenge is a bit different. Elvish Bismuth and Oil of Enchantment went from around $8-$10 to around $80. 10x increase in secondary market/auction price for something already near $10 before the run hasn't happened before (to my knowledge - players pre 2014 jump in and correct me if I'm wrong.)

The spike in pricing and availability was caused by an unusual number of new transmutes that required 1 of each type of token combined with mythic items becoming available and having large transmute requirements. Simultaneously, we aren't getting 10 packs in VTD treasure anymore, that will further reduce possible inventory. 1 of everything recipes substantially reduce inventory of the more rare items like EB/OE.

This creates two main challenges:
1. New players are (mostly) priced out of 4 star transmutes like charms of deathward, gloves of infamy, and ioun stone obsidian shard (quite a few existing players are holding off on those as well just hoping to draw them in treasure.) Based on secondary market prices, items like the gloves or Ioun Stone would cost upwards of $100.

2. Many existing players are having to delay transmutes - waiting until pricing comes down on OE and EB. Items like the crossbow and vampire ring as well as ones that can wait like the greaves. I know of at least a dozen players holding off on mythic transmutes since the current trade good pricing is adding $700+ to the cost of playing on mythic difficulty.

Fewer existing players doing transmutes isn't a big deal other than lowering demand for $8K orders and related auctions. Pricing out transmutes for newer players is a bigger deal since it delays new people from feeling invested in the game. They might not ever get into transmutes if they look unattainable/too expensive.

My recommendation is two-fold.
First - please consider making transmute recipes roughly follow the frequency we'd run into those trade goods in 10 packs and treasure draws. If a recipe needs 1 of each, that stresses how rare the harder to transmute trade goods will be. If, out of 1000 treasure draws, you get enough for 10 DP and 1 OE, then the ratio in recipes should be roughly 10:1 for DP/MS/PS to EB and OE. We are seeing the legendary transmutes follow those formulas pretty well but 3 star, 4 star, safeholds, and mythic transmutes all seem to be pretty far off on those formulas.
Second - having a way to transmute trade goods into each other would be helpful. For example, any trade 2 can be made with 10 trade 1. 10 MS for 1 EB, OE, or Arag. Maybe 5:1 for MS/PS/DP into DS/MH. The cost should be about 50% higher than the average cost for the good but this would keep any one good from getting pretty far out of whack. You could do something similar for gold if it got out of hand but we haven't seen gold pricing change by more than 250% in the past 10-15 years. Yes - Golden Fleece is an exception - I'm not addressing it here since it is exclusive to treasure draws and not in 10 packs or regular orders.
*Letting us exchange exalted/4 stars for OE/EB/Arag would also help this. Since most of those require 1 trade2, it would help give us a way to reduce our stocks of those (beyond giving them to new players - I give out a few hundred tokens a year to new players and still have lots of extras of those) while bringing OE/EB pricing down (and Arag pricing if it spiked like that.)

Yes, some people have already paid $80+ for OE. They might not be happy that they paid more than if they had waited. We all have things we bought on the wrong side of market peaks (stocks, houses, etc..). Most people don't blame the market for their decision to buy when they did - it's often just good or bad luck.

Thanks for looking at this and considering it.

I would agree with your statements. I've mentioned before that this spike in prices was a direct result of the schedule of when things were being transmuted. Not pointing fingers or blaming, because no one saw this coming, and I'm sure if they knew then what we know now, things would be different.

For myself personally, I have a Plano box full of TG's, but just 1 OE and 1 EB. And those were scrapped together from every dang token I could find in my collection that could be transmuted into those.

Also, I know people keep saying the prices on these will go down, but I disagree. I think they might drop slightly, but this has created a situation I believe will take years before we see the prices on these drop.

Corey Pressler wrote: I would agree with your statements. I've mentioned before that this spike in prices was a direct result of the schedule of when things were being transmuted. Not pointing fingers or blaming, because no one saw this coming, and I'm sure if they knew then what we know now, things would be different.

For myself personally, I have a Plano box full of TG's, but just 1 OE and 1 EB. And those were scrapped together from every dang token I could find in my collection that could be transmuted into those.

Also, I know people keep saying the prices on these will go down, but I disagree. I think they might drop slightly, but this has created a situation I believe will take years before we see the prices on these drop.

I agree that this likely won't change much absent TD intervention. The main reason for that is the vast majority of 8K orders have already happened for the year. We won't be seeing 2-3 8k auctions closing each week. At current pacing, including Trent, my guess is we'll see 2-3 per month. That doesn't create a ton of extra OE or EB becoming available. The remainder will need to come from runs. With no more 10 packs on VTD, that cuts OE and EB pretty substantially. Looking at what other people have drawn so far, it looks like around 40 trade 2 per every 2000 draws. Assume 2/3 were OE or EB, that means another approx 25 were put into circulation per 2000 draws or about 100 player-runs or 10 time slots. Each VTD has 20 Friday slots, 50 Sat slots, and 50 Sun slots. If we estimate 20 draws per run as an average (actual is likely lower) and every slot sells out, that is 120 time slots. That would generate 250 combined OE and EB per month max per month. Realistically, 75% of the slots sell out and actual treasure average is closer to 10 draws based on the number of normal difficulty runs, that would cut the amount generated down to around 100 combined. Of those, not all will be transmuted - if 2/3rd of those are transmuted, you get about 70 combined. Add another 60 combined from auctions. That works out to 65 of each for the entire community per month excluding the bigger in-person conventions (especially Gencon). The big conventions have complete newbies playing as well - people who rarely ever transmute tokens. My guess is the net total transmutes wouldn't be more from what is generated there than the average VTD. That yields us between 500 and 600 total of OE and EB generated before the next pre-orders are done. That works out to enough for 10 sets of mythic tokens, or 50 safehold 1's, or 200 legendary transmutes. Any one of those would consume the entire supply of OE and EB assuming nobody else used any OE or EB for any other transmutes. A single completionist player would consume more than 70 OE and EB. 7-8 of those and the entire community has to wait for more OE and EB.

Its pretty clear that supply is far shorter than demand this year based on the recipes. It won't change early next year since the coin of wealth will be, by far, the highest in-demand mythic item. 10 each of OE and EB will likely be used by upwards of 100 people.

My guess is we'd see both of them gradually come back down by around Gencon 2027 but not to $6-$8 each - my guess is $15-20 each for the next 2-4 years barring any changes.

Fred

I don't see an issue with $80 EB or Oil. Looking at this years 3 and 4 star transmutes which are geared towards newer players only two of the 4 star ones require EB. None require OE.. As long as the 3 and 4 star transmutes stick with limited EB and OE newer player's won't be affected.

As for existing players having to delay transmutes, I don't see any problem with this at all. Transmute when you can, the game's not going anywhere. I was around prior to 2014 and there were some swings. And long ago you couldn't find a UR for less than $100. $80 EB and Oil become a non-issue the longer they are at $80. It just becomes accepted after a while and having a higher price helps more auctions close. I bet if someone listed OE now for $40 players would think it's a steal. Players would consider that same $40 5 years ago a rip off. It's all relative. Maybe $80 is really a great deal right now and people should buy as much as they can before $100's the new norm. Waiting on a transmute doesn't prevent people from playing. Maybe TD should advertise the Discord sidequests in the next newsletter or on their website so more people have a chance at free OE, EB, Fleece and Hirelings? I'm guessing the people who could use these the most (new players) don't know they can win free Tokens. Looks like most of the people winning are people who have played for a while.

Rob F wrote: I don't see an issue with $80 EB or Oil. Looking at this years 3 and 4 star transmutes which are geared towards newer players only two of the 4 star ones require EB. None require OE.. As long as the 3 and 4 star transmutes stick with limited EB and OE newer player's won't be affected.

As for existing players having to delay transmutes, I don't see any problem with this at all. Transmute when you can, the game's not going anywhere. I was around prior to 2014 and there were some swings. And long ago you couldn't find a UR for less than $100. $80 EB and Oil become a non-issue the longer they are at $80. It just becomes accepted after a while and having a higher price helps more auctions close. I bet if someone listed OE now for $40 players would think it's a steal. Players would consider that same $40 5 years ago a rip off. It's all relative. Maybe $80 is really a great deal right now and people should buy as much as they can before $100's the new norm. Waiting on a transmute doesn't prevent people from playing. Maybe TD should advertise the Discord sidequests in the next newsletter or on their website so more people have a chance at free OE, EB, Fleece and Hirelings? I'm guessing the people who could use these the most (new players) don't know they can win free Tokens. Looks like most of the people winning are people who have played for a while.

3 of the 4 star recipes this year require either EB or OE (2 EB, 1 OE.)

There is an issue with waiting as you can't create the relics beyond the 2 year from initial printing. Additionally, we have already seen a good number of players leave due to the increased costs of transmutes - this will make that even worse. Some of the "whales" scaled all the way back to just doing in-person normal runs. Combine that with cost of goods increases/inflation in the outside world and a lot of people seeing their work hours cut and you end up with folks asking if they should spend their time elsewhere.

Making transmutes increase in cost far faster than disposable income increasing isn't a good recipe for the game overall. Combine that with prices for runs increasing every year and it makes even the hard core collectors second guess themselves.

This isn't an issue of a small number of people whining. A common refrain from outside the community is that the game is already pretty expensive and the tokens are prohibitively expensive, especially if you want to play at levels beyond normal. As for the existing community, I'm pretty sure your view of $80 for a trade good with recipes increasing by 10%+ each year being ok is definitely the minority. The discord puzzles group is based on the generosity of a single individual and is only a small handful (usually less than 5 or 10) per month. That isn't the answer. If anything, that discord puzzle channel keeps engagement from players who have already slowed their purchases and transmutes.

Having the Ioun Stone Obsidian Shard cost $100 in materials means no new player will ever do that transmute unless they draw the oil of enchantment for it. They look at what is needed, then go to Trent's to see what it costs for the pieces then stop looking. They don't know that a similar benefit can be found from a rare from 4 years ago - that would require multiple years of knowledge they just don't have.

I happen to know of a forum auction with EB and OE prices well below $80.