TOPIC: The Value of ingredients - Discussion

Mike,
You had a case of great timing when you sold those ingredients for $30.00. My sales were just a couple of days later got about $9.00 each. (Next year I will post my sales quicker). I really don't think price ranges should reflect a single outlying trade but they should reflect a level where many trades have occured.

I think 1000 GP is way too high for the upper price. In fact I think 500 GP is too high. I know I still have a lot left from my "old ingredient" sale which I was unable to sell at 400 GP each.

I will do a test. I will offer to sell 10 new ingredients (2 of each type) at 500 GP each. If I sell out then I will happily admit that 500 GP or higher is a better upper limit. But if I don't sell any, I will continue to advocate a lower upper price. (post going up soon)

George wrote: Mike,
You had a case of great timing when you sold those ingredients for $30.00. My sales were just a couple of days later got about $9.00 each. (Next year I will post my sales quicker). I really don't think price ranges should reflect a single outlying trade but they should reflect a level where many trades have occured.

I think 1000 GP is way too high for the upper price. In fact I think 500 GP is too high. I know I still have a lot left from my "old ingredient" sale which I was unable to sell at 400 GP each.

I will do a little test to prove my point. I will offer to sell 10 new ingredients (2 of each type) at 500 GP each. If I sell out then I will happily admit that 500 GP or higher is a better upper limit. But if I don't sell any, I will continue to advocate a lower upper price. (Drat I am at work and don't have a list of the current ingredients, I will have to post the offer when I get home. If someone will PM me the list of ingredients I may be able to get the sale up earlier)

George: I was going to PM you the info, but PM appears to be down, even from the "Compose" screen (which was the workaround I was using yesterday for it). I can rattle off those ingredients here, if you'd like (or if someone else doesn't beat me to it. )

Thanks for offer I did find the names in someone's trade post.

Mike Steele wrote: It seems to me that both ends of that price range are too low. I think that the value of new ingredient tokens is far higher than 100 GP at the low end - I'll pay 200 GP apiece for any new ingredient tokens anyone has, and I doubt anyone will take me up on that offer.

I believe the key phrase in the sentence above is "anyone here".

The forums are populated by players who love TD, love the tokens, play the crafting game, watch for the combo recipes every year, and generally like to collect stuff. They have plans for their ingredient tokens.

But if you open the trade market up to the people who were wandering the halls of the Marriott in August, I bet many of them would be thrilled to take you up on that offer. Those are the players who value Ingredients a lot less, because they can't be bothered to hang out on the forums, or play the crafting game, or buy the URs which they'll need to combo with that Golden Fleece.

I bet if you set up a shop next year with a sign that says "BUYING INGREDIENTS! 200GP EACH!" you will make a lot of players happy.

The price range could be very wide in my opinion. Ingredients - 100GP to 1000 GP, prices very wildly depending on scarcity. Is a good indicator to new players that ingredient tokens have a wide value. The now informed player can choose to ask around a bunch and get several offers or take the first one he/she runs into. I believe that to be fair. But to lean over the token box when a newb pulls and ingredient and say "I'll give you 100GP for that" without giving the newbie any information - that I am not cool with.

I'm inclined to agree with Raven's logic. But, in practice, ingredients are worth what the market will bear. This is being pretty well illustrated by George's 500 GP experiment. In general, I would argue that each year the current set of ingredient tokens should at a max be worth 250 GP, since that is the GP equivalent of the highest value. Once the actual values are announced, the GP values should validate closer to the actual value. Of course, various factors can raise or lower this, such as a 4C, individual ingredient rarity (such as the Creeper Thorn), and even collector preference. But, for me, no ingredient (with rare exceptions like the Creeper Thorn) is worth more than 300 GP (factoring in the "profit" for the trader). But, based off the result of George's experiment, not everyone on the forum shares my estimation.

The Broasted wrote: I'm inclined to agree with Raven's logic. But, in practice, ingredients are worth what the market will bear. This is being pretty well illustrated by George's 500 GP experiment. In general, I would argue that each year the current set of ingredient tokens should at a max be worth 250 GP, since that is the GP equivalent of the highest value. Once the actual values are announced, the GP values should validate closer to the actual value. Of course, various factors can raise or lower this, such as a 4C, individual ingredient rarity (such as the Creeper Thorn), and even collector preference. But, for me, no ingredient (with rare exceptions like the Creeper Thorn) is worth more than 300 GP (factoring in the "profit" for the trader). But, based off the result of George's experiment, not everyone on the forum shares my estimation.

I'd agree with it, but that's primarily due to my total GP worth being just over 1K. 3 in the course of George's experiment would cost me 1500GP...at yours, It'd be just about all I have. And yet, were I to see 3 for 900GP, I'd swoop on it, even with it reducing my GP to minimum.

persolo wrote:

The Broasted wrote: I'm inclined to agree with Raven's logic. But, in practice, ingredients are worth what the market will bear. This is being pretty well illustrated by George's 500 GP experiment. In general, I would argue that each year the current set of ingredient tokens should at a max be worth 250 GP, since that is the GP equivalent of the highest value. Once the actual values are announced, the GP values should validate closer to the actual value. Of course, various factors can raise or lower this, such as a 4C, individual ingredient rarity (such as the Creeper Thorn), and even collector preference. But, for me, no ingredient (with rare exceptions like the Creeper Thorn) is worth more than 300 GP (factoring in the "profit" for the trader). But, based off the result of George's experiment, not everyone on the forum shares my estimation.

I'd agree with it, but that's primarily due to my total GP worth being just over 1K. 3 in the course of George's experiment would cost me 1500GP...at yours, It'd be just about all I have. And yet, were I to see 3 for 900GP, I'd swoop on it, even with it reducing my GP to minimum.

Well, George quickly sold 9 of 10 at 500 GP each, so that sets the value at at least that amount. Like I said earlier, looking at the 40/80/250 GP value for 1C-3C tokens doesn't determine the value, because other factors (4C Token, completing ingredient sets, Golden Fleece, etc) drive the value of current tokens way above that.

Mike Steele wrote:

persolo wrote:

The Broasted wrote: I'm inclined to agree with Raven's logic. But, in practice, ingredients are worth what the market will bear. This is being pretty well illustrated by George's 500 GP experiment. In general, I would argue that each year the current set of ingredient tokens should at a max be worth 250 GP, since that is the GP equivalent of the highest value. Once the actual values are announced, the GP values should validate closer to the actual value. Of course, various factors can raise or lower this, such as a 4C, individual ingredient rarity (such as the Creeper Thorn), and even collector preference. But, for me, no ingredient (with rare exceptions like the Creeper Thorn) is worth more than 300 GP (factoring in the "profit" for the trader). But, based off the result of George's experiment, not everyone on the forum shares my estimation.

I'd agree with it, but that's primarily due to my total GP worth being just over 1K. 3 in the course of George's experiment would cost me 1500GP...at yours, It'd be just about all I have. And yet, were I to see 3 for 900GP, I'd swoop on it, even with it reducing my GP to minimum.

Well, George quickly sold 9 of 10 at 500 GP each, so that sets the value at at least that amount. Like I said earlier, looking at the 40/80/250 GP value for 1C-3C tokens doesn't determine the value, because other factors (4C Token, completing ingredient sets, Golden Fleece, etc) drive the value of current tokens way above that.

So, keep hold of mine til next year, and I may be able to make a killing? (And, likely not lose out since neither of them cost me anything). In other words, it doesn't hurt me at all to keep the two I have, and if I can find a way to get the other three within my budgetary constraints...Woot! If not, no real worries.

I think there are two different issues being discussed here, and they are getting intermingled. To separate them:

1) Price Guide Value of Current Year Monster Ingredient Tokens:

It isn't really a matter of debate on what price guide values should be, they are based on actual sales by dealers. For True Dungeon, Dealers would be people trading on the forums, Ebay Sales, Gamingetc prices/sales, etc. You can look at all the sales over a period of time, throw out any extreme outliers on both ends, and come up with a range. Based on Ebay sales and forum trades so far, the value of the current year ingredient tokens is about $9-$15 and at least 500 GP (which both fall into the same range).

Price Guide values aren't based on prices dealers pay to people for items for resale, it is based on the prices those dealers sell those items for. It is understood that dealers usually only pay a percentage of the value of an item. Therefore, the fact that some TD players traded their Ingredient Tokens for 100 GP doesn't set the value at 100 GP, it just means that they traded them for less than market value. And I think everyone here would have to agree that the actual value of ingredient tokens is far above 100 GP, because nobody here would sell them for that and nearly everyone would buy them for that. The quick trades of George's at 500 GP proves the value is far above 100 GP. So the price guide would not be accurate to say that the lower value is 100 GP because that is not a value that any dealer/trader would sell them for. The price guide values should be based solely on actual sales data from dealers.

Older Monster Ingredient Tokens are valued lower, although the old wooden ones might have actually been worth more, but I think a lot of them surfaced from the Treasure Map boxes which will drive the values back down.

Leading to Topic #2 - is it fair to trade 100 GP (or whatever amount) for ingredient tokens at GENCON.

And my answer to that would be that whatever price both parties agree to is fine as long as both parties are informed as to the value of the tokens - which is where a price guide would come in very handy. If the price guide stated the monster ingredient value as, for example, 300 GP - 700 GP (or whatever the sales data ends up showing) and the person still is fine trading them for 100 GP (or whatever) that's fine. But if the person isn't aware that they could trade them on the forums for far more than 100 GP, or sell them on Ebay for far more than the cash equivalent of 100 GP, then in my mind that is not a fair trade, because the individual is trading well under market value without realizing what that market value is.

I'm going disagree that George's experiment sets the value of the ingredients. His experiment proves that a percentage of the population is willing to pay that amount at this point in time for this year's ingredients, prior to the announced value and confirmation of the 4C rumor. It does not prove the valuation of ingredients beyond that.

Basic economic principles show that market price is heavily influenced by measurable factors such as supply and demand, market saturation, and trends. But, it is also important to acknowledge that other "intangible" factors apply, such as trader preference and individual desires. As an example, look at Gerry Altilio Jr., who is suspected to be the first trader to buy oil at $100 a barrel. He made what was called a "vanity trade," in that it raised more publicity than return-on-investment.

I'm not saying that the folks who bought off of George are making a "vanity trade." But, they may have reasons for buying at that price that do not represent the majority of buyers interests. Thus, making a flat valuation off of his experiment would be specious logic at best.

I do think George's experiment can be used to help define a range on this year's ingredients, but that's about the extent of what it proves. (It does, however, make George 5,000 GP richer, prior to the Pricing Guide.)

Raven wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: It seems to me that both ends of that price range are too low. I think that the value of new ingredient tokens is far higher than 100 GP at the low end - I'll pay 200 GP apiece for any new ingredient tokens anyone has, and I doubt anyone will take me up on that offer.

I believe the key phrase in the sentence above is "anyone here".

The forums are populated by players who love TD, love the tokens, play the crafting game, watch for the combo recipes every year, and generally like to collect stuff. They have plans for their ingredient tokens.

But if you open the trade market up to the people who were wandering the halls of the Marriott in August, I bet many of them would be thrilled to take you up on that offer. Those are the players who value Ingredients a lot less, because they can't be bothered to hang out on the forums, or play the crafting game, or buy the URs which they'll need to combo with that Golden Fleece.

I bet if you set up a shop next year with a sign that says "BUYING INGREDIENTS! 200GP EACH!" you will make a lot of players happy.

But would they still be happy trading them to me at 200 GP each, if they knew they could go to the forums after GENCON and trade them for as much as 500 GP (or more) worth of tokens each? Or go to Ebay and get $10 or more for them? I'm sure some would, but probably not all.