TOPIC: Thoughts on Token prices (long term trends).

I think it will be very interesting with all players gauranteed a red and two greens. There actually may be a lot of trading for green and red weapons, full plate, gauntlets, armor items are those are the items that are obviously needed for the dungeon. While prices for manyof the same items will drop with collectors, I am not sure the same can be said for the casual player. I am somewhat worried about the casual gamer that gets the bag of tokens and is like, um, what do I need to do with these. <br /><br />I think the price guide is in serious doubt among collectors. I personallly have gotten in trouble for using it and being laughed at -- being told "Are you kidding?". In some ways, we are back to the way it was in 2004, magic items for magic items, but in this case, purples.

The players are getting all those REDS and GREENS - but not able to trade them with anyone except within their party...so what they get is what they get...and outside traders MAY get a shot at them after an adventure...but who knows...<br /><br />And when I said - "are you kidding?"  I said it with nothing but love...I bet others would have said worse if you offered up Three REDS and two GREENS for TWO PURPS...<br /><br />It is fair to say that PURPS have a skewed bling association...

<br />Personally I'd be much more inclined to trade at guide once I complete a mission to get a full .com set of PURPS...I'm about 2-3 away at the moment...<br />

<br /><br />Which ones are you missing Gary?

+2 Great Axe...Gloves of Dex...I have a +2 Axe in Spider...but was looking for the .com set.

<br />I think the price guide is in serious doubt among collectors.

<br /><br />People, the Price Guide is based first and foremost on trades.  Stating that you think a token is worth X instead of Y doesn't matter unless you have traded it for X.  And if you have trades that reflect different values, SEND THEM TO ME PLEASE.  <br /><br /><br />

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<br />I think the price guide is in serious doubt among collectors.

<br /><br />People, the Price Guide is based first and foremost on trades.  Stating that you think a token is worth X instead of Y doesn't matter unless you have traded it for X.  And if you have trades that reflect different values, SEND THEM TO ME PLEASE.  <br />

<br />Here's a question then...how did the girdle go down in price? Did a buncha people trade theirs for next to nothing this time around? I would have thought that the one I reported skewed the hell out of the price, but it actually dropped.

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<br />I think the price guide is in serious doubt among collectors.

<br /><br />People, the Price Guide is based first and foremost on trades.  Stating that you think a token is worth X instead of Y doesn't matter unless you have traded it for X.   And if you have trades that reflect different values, SEND THEM TO ME PLEASE.  <br />

<br />Here's a question then...how did the girdle go down in price? Did a buncha people trade theirs for next to nothing this time around? I would have thought that the one I reported skewed the hell out of the price, but it actually dropped.<br />

<br /><br />Here's the answer then.  Two other trades came in that valued the Girdle lower relative to other tokens.  Any other questions?

<br />Here's the answer then.  Two other trades came in that valued the Girdle lower relative to other tokens.  Any other questions?<br />

<br />Ya. You're going to have to spell that one out for me. It seems like what you're saying is that if I trade a token for 500 GP, it's not actually factored in as 500GP. Instead the token is then compared to all the other trades for non-related tokens and that somehow determines the price.<br /><br />So, if someone sold a cloak of displacement for 10,000 GP worth of items, the GP might actually fall in price because of what other people are trading (non cloak)?

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<br />Here's the answer then.  Two other trades came in that valued the Girdle lower relative to other tokens.  Any other questions?<br />

<br />Ya. You're going to have to spell that one out for me. It seems like what you're saying is that if I trade a token for 500 GP, it's not actually factored in as 500GP. Instead the token is then compared to all the other trades for non-related tokens and that somehow determines the price.<br /><br />So, if someone sold a cloak of displacement for 10,000 GP worth of items, the GP might actually fall in price because of what other people are trading (non cloak)?<br />

<br /><br />Think of it this way -<br /><br />Say that item X has a current list value of 2000 GP<br /><br />Three trades are reported - One where item X goes for 3000 GP, one where it goes for 1500 GP, and one where it goes for 1000 GP. The higher price would be factored in, yes, but the overall valuation would still probably drop, due to multiple trades reported at a significantly lower price.<br /><br />I don't know exactly what the result would be (I don't know what forumlas Douglas uses), but I would imagine that's the logic behind it. Makes sense to me.

Well....<br /><br />If there were two other trades in the same period that factored in to bring the price down by 200, they would have had to traded the girdle for 1400 each. That's assuming that all past trades were disregarded. If we already had weight of trades beforehand, the amount necessary to pull the girdle down would shrink even more. <br /><br />If there had been 1 previous trades of the girdle, the two girdle trades we're talking about would have had to have been sold for an average of 1300 each. It continues to decline from there.<br /><br />Check my math...if there (lets say) has been 7 total girdle trades. 4 old and 3 new (one of which is mine). The old trades would factor together to have given an average of 2800. Thus, 4x2800 is added to the amount to be averaged (11200). We also add to it the amount of my trade (circa 5000) for a total of 16200. We know that the end total of all trades must be the new average (2600) times the number of total trades (7) for a value of 18200.<br /><br />18200-11200-5000 leaves a total of 2000 to be divided among the two trades we don't knwo the value of. Thus, the two trades had an average value of 1000 for the girdle in order to reach a total average of 2600.

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<br />I think the price guide is in serious doubt among collectors.

<br /><br />People, the Price Guide is based first and foremost on trades.  Stating that you think a token is worth X instead of Y doesn't matter unless you have traded it for X.   And if you have trades that reflect different values, SEND THEM TO ME PLEASE. 

<br /><br />Problem is I think the guide still averages them - so new trends in values may take time to really show up...OR one off-bell trade and it takes a bunch of opposing trades to get it back in line...<br /><br />What's wrong with a little Trader guild price fixing? 

<br />So new trends in values may take time to really show up...

<br /><br />Rapid trends may take some time to show.  This is the nature of a Price Guide.  I try to do some forecasting due to rule changes (e.g. ranged tokens), trend predictions and the like.  But this is more subjective and so I rely heavily on trades that come in.<br /><br />In the end, people all value tokens differently (e.g. I value what you are offering more than you do and likewise for you and my offer).  This is a fundamental nature of an economy and is what makes trades possible.  If you value a token differently than the Guide, by all means, try to sell for as high as possible or buy for as low as possible...  and then if you find someone else whos willing to match you, be sure and send me the trade.