TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

Am I misremembering things? Didn't treasure run out last year, and more have to be mixed up? Or was that a previous year?

Matthew Hayward wrote: ...
I can't help but notice that the Relic Recipe Fragment? % plus the monster bit % at Origins is almost exactly what the monster bit percentage was in 2018.

I think it's very plausible that there will be no Relic Recipe Fragments? at Gen Con, GHC, and PAX, and the monster bit ratio will return to 20%.

To be clear - I'm not saying it will happen - I'm just saying I don't see how anyone can be so certain it can't happen so as to begin irreversibly mulching monster bits that would be useful if it did - especially when you just need to wait 7 weeks to find out!

Sort of...

Relic Recipe Fragments may be turned in for any 2019 monster bit or as a golden fleece item - so the monster bit mix is actually perhaps better than what anyone was expecting it would be before origins, given the wildcard aspect which will help round out sets.

tokendb.com/ingredient-for/a-mystery-item/

That definitely helps. It kind of depends how desirable the Mystery Relic is.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: IIRC, Draco-lich Claw Charm went for 100 or less when first released
Icecrag was 125, and that’s with one super-expensive set
If the fact doesn’t bother you that some stores feel that 300 is a fair price for the Bead, and Fred K implies that charge even more if they had less shame, then there’s nothing else to say.

I just sold a Draco-lich and an Icecrag each for like $160 on eBay.

Anyone contemplating spending $300 on a bead should consider the very high chance this token will settle around $150-200, as the past tokens of this kind have (including the one that took the ultra rare 2013 bits!)

We're going to get a lot more information about the supply and demand beads coming up, including:

a. We find out how many beads themselves are in the 2019/20 mix (there were quite a few Icecrag's in the mix for the next year or two after it was craftable which really bolstered supply).

b. We get through a few more years of UR breads and don't see anything that will knock this out of the slot for a lot of players - if there is ever a +2 to STR bead or a +2 to melee hit or damage bead before the bead slot gets an expander the value of the Bead of the Lucky Traveler will plummet. Given that such tokens exist for nearly every single slot, it's probably only a matter of time.

It's no wonder beads are very expensive right now, supply is as low as it can be and still circulate, and demand is about as high as it's going to be (heading into Gen Con with minimal slot competition) any time soon.

If anyone* doesn't think the price will come down, I'll give you a chance to make sure you lock in a lower price.

I'd offer anyone* out there either of these options:

Option 1: You send me $10 this June, and you get the right to purchase a Bead of the Lucky Traveler from me for $245 in September 2020 if you choose.

Option 2: I send you $10 today, and then I get the right to sell you a Bead of the Lucky Traveler for $245 in September 2020 if I choose.

Option 3: We exchange no money now, but we both agree that:
- if you choose: I'll sell you a BotLT for $245 in September 2020
- if I choose: you'll buy a BotLT for $245 from me in September 2020.

Update on this:

A. No one took me up on these options at the time.

B. Bead of the Lucky Traveler has already returned to earth and is selling at $160-190 range on eBay.

Kirk has them on his store for $188.

Looks like there is no extravagant pricing for the BotLT that lasted beyond the usual early excitement.

Also - several people on the thread estimated 2019 monster bits would settle in around $20-25 each.

For better or worse, they are now going for closer to $15 on eBay, whereas RRFs are going for ~17.

I expect all of those will come down as time goes on.

Matthew Hayward wrote: Also - several people on the thread estimated 2019 monster bits would settle in around $20-25 each.

For better or worse, they are now going for closer to $15 on eBay, whereas RRFs are going for ~17.

I expect all of those will come down as time goes on.

Several people? I think that is not accurate. I only saw Wade predict that. Mike said 15 to 25 including rrf’s. If you have others for your several people please provide.

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Also - several people on the thread estimated 2019 monster bits would settle in around $20-25 each.

For better or worse, they are now going for closer to $15 on eBay, whereas RRFs are going for ~17.

I expect all of those will come down as time goes on.

Several people? I think that is not accurate. I only saw Wade predict that. Mike said 15 to 25 including rrf’s. If you have others for your several people please provide.

Lol - busted.

I could say:

"Multiple people threw out prospective prices or ranges including 20-25, '15-25 or more' and 25."