TOPIC: 2023 vs 2022 auctions

Is anyone keeping track of how many auctions are run? If so, I'm curious how 2023 is doing compared to 2022. It seems like there are far fewer auctions completing this year than last, but maybe that isn't correct.

Mike, I would agree. While I haven't keep track of auctions per se. I did notice that the number of Patron runs is down from Jan 23 to Jan 24.

In Jan 23, for the Prelude to Tomb of Terrors there were 10 Patron runs, with 93 of 100 tickets purchased.
In Jan 24, for Escape from the Tomb of Terrors there were 7 Patron runs, with 65 of 70 tickets purchased.

So 30% less 8k orders and likely less auctions.

I wonder if the decrease this year is simply an upfront decrease that will even out over the rest of the year. Now that there have been regular auctions (last year Utaku and now Trent), I think a lot of people have decided they will be able to get the tokens they want without making a full 8k order. So there may be fewer orders at the beginning, but more as the year goes on since auctions are running regularly throughout the year.

Just speculation on my part. Do you have the Patron counts from the Patron runs last September? That may give an indication of how many auctions occurred between January and then.

There were 108 patrons in the fall run, so an additional 15 between January and September.

Also, looks like 24 auctions have closed so far this year. Not sure how many closed by this date last year, but 2023 ended with 51 according to the auction analysis spreadsheet.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1618314102&fvid=813401404

I have a feeling the reopening of the CoA recipe combined with the last shirt and first greaves created a spike in auctions unlikely to be repeated for some time. The demand for PYPs stayed high through most of the year. and we're certainly not seeing that now.

I think its that, plus everyone has their URTEs already.

Next year will go up again.

There have been fewer closed auctions this token season than last. (Side note: I refer to "token season" in my spreadsheet because the sales period overlaps multiple years. As in you can pre-order 2024 tokens in 2023.)

Here's the numbers!
By this point in the 2023 season, we had 35 completed auctions. Currently, we have 24.


Here's how it stacks up by "Closed Month"


Note: "Close month" is a rolling month-long period from the start of token sales to the current date. This is because pre-orders start at different times each year, so I had to come up with some sort of standard to make meaningful year-to-year comparisons. You can't just do "auctions in October" because that doesn't always match.

Another useful stat is average days to close. In the 2023 season, the average was 9 days to close. Currently, auctions are sitting at an average of 11 days to close.
2023


2024


I'd agree with Endgame's assessment that the higher interest in auctions last year is likely due to the numerous transmutes last year: Arcanum shirts, greaves retroactively added into a new transmute and the third Charm of Avarice recipe that meant people were doubling down on Beads of Bounty.

Dave wrote: There were 108 patrons in the fall run, so an additional 15 between January and September.

Also, looks like 24 auctions have closed so far this year. Not sure how many closed by this date last year, but 2023 ended with 51 according to the auction analysis spreadsheet.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1618314102&fvid=813401404

That's a great spreadsheet! How did I miss that before!

Agree with Endgame, Wade, and Mark. Also in broader terms consumer spending in general is currently declining. True Dungeon is likely not completely immune to that.

I also wish to note that a particular Auctioneer isn’t running them like they did last year ( back to back for most of the year ) on the forums as well as off. Another hasn’t run any to to them leaving and the ones inbetween have died down. But between those two I mentioned, they ran at least a dozen to two dozen before the “ mail out “ period for the 2024 tokens. As of now one of them has only run 8 by my record. Players tend to flock to the ones they have dealt with in the past for ease and knowing there process.

Some of the big players left the game last year. Some of those players ran auctions, others didn't but spent a fair amount on tokens via the auctions. Other big players that are still in the game have pulled back on their spending.

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote: I think its that, plus everyone has their URTEs already.

Next year will go up again.

I hope that next year gets back to the level of the last couple of years, but I have my doubts. There seems to be a downward trend in values as well as sales.

I mean, it'll be between last year and this year.

We do need to keep drumming up new converts.