TOPIC: 2023 vs 2022 auctions

I think if the new class cards lean into wis/int/cha having more value you could see a new cycle in token design which could spur more auctions next year. As others have said without a new TE this year PYP prices are down which makes funding auctions difficult.

OrionW wrote: I think if the new class cards lean into wis/int/cha having more value you could see a new cycle in token design which could spur more auctions next year. As others have said without a new TE this year PYP prices are down which makes funding auctions difficult.

I don't recall sales dropping significantly in the past when the TE UR was in the off-year, I actually recall a rush in sales towards the end of the year of people wanting to grab it before it went out of print. This year just feels different to me, not just in significantly fewer new token sales but in a drop in secondary value of many (most?) tokens. Next year will be interesting to see how much token sales rebound, I hope it is significant.

I think we need to consider the VTD era separately from the pre-VTD era. Prior to VTD, a player could get a few runs in at a few in-person conventions. Let's say 10 runs total for the year for a fairly engaged player that attends a couple of cons.

But now with VTD available nearly every month, plus the in-person cons, a fairly engaged player can get 50 runs a year (and really dedicated can get to 75 or more). That means more trade goods through mulching, more random PYPs in treasure, more monster bits, etc. just from doing more runs. As a result, the demand in auctions will be less because a good portion of the demand is satisfied through the treasure pulls and 10 packs in VTD.

Someone who really wants to do a lot of work (or a back of the envelope calculation) could count up all of the VTD runs last year plus all in-person runs and compare that to 2019 with just in-person runs. I'm guessing those numbers will support why there is price deflation.

Not as skewed as you might think. I don't have 2019 Gen Con or GHC numbers. If I use the assumption that 2019 Gen Con and GHC ticket sales were equal to 2023 (I'm guessing they were probably more), you get the following.

2019
PAX South - 2199
Origins - 2436
Gen Con - 5880 (equal to 2023 assumption)
PAX West - 1991
GHC - 1058 (equal to 2023, but probably more since there were 2 full dungeons)
Total = 13,614

2023
VTD 12-19 - 7866
Momo Con - 543
Gen Con - 5880
GHC - 1058
Total = 15,347

I would argue that in 2019 Gen Con had 3 full dungeons compared to 2 + ConQuest in 2023. And GHC had 2 full dungeons compared to 1 + True Grind in 2023 probably would increase 2019 at least to 14,000+.

However, the number of different players were probably much higher in 2019 since runs were spread across the country, while with VTD you likely have the same few hundred people playing every month.

Thanks for compiling that data. As you suggest, the in-person cons probably have the runs spread out among many more players. I'd suggest that those are usually the more casual players who wouldn't hit the auctions hard (until they get the disease we have). But the "power" players now have a means through VTD to greatly increase treasure pulls which I'd argue is part of the reason the prices may be dropping, as well as some "power" players dropping out in the last year or two and selling a lot of desirable, (formerly?) expensive tokens into the marketplace.

My understanding from talking with people who run epilogue, at Physical TD, it's the exception to have a run have multiple TEs, let alone full treasure for the whole run.

Flip side, for VTD, it's the exception to have players come through with only 3/4 treasure.

I also think using 2023 as the baseline for auctions is not a great idea. It contained PYPs for 2x Multi Year and a new TE, which could also be used for a CoA transmute for 1200(ish) where existing CoAs had become around $2000.

Marc has auction data going back to 2019, so we can probably get the numbers of auctions per year - though that isn't a replacement for 8ks per year given there are private 8ks purchased.

Endgame wrote: My understanding from talking with people who run epilogue, at Physical TD, it's the exception to have a run have multiple TEs, let alone full treasure for the whole run.

Flip side, for VTD, it's the exception to have players come through with only 3/4 treasure.

I also think using 2023 as the baseline for auctions is not a great idea. It contained PYPs for 2x Multi Year and a new TE, which could also be used for a CoA transmute for 1200(ish) where existing CoAs had become around $2000.

Marc has auction data going back to 2019, so we can probably get the numbers of auctions per year - though that isn't a replacement for 8ks per year given there are private 8ks purchased.

Marc, it would be interesting to see the auction data going back to 2019, that might give some interesting trend lines.

It's possible to estimate the non-auction 8K orders by using the number of patrons in the patron runs. Of course, the assumption is that everyone with patron status will sign up for a patron run. That seems pretty reasonable to me.

Here is Marc's chart for historical auctions (source:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1984123900 )

and the extracted chart from it:


Looks like 2022 did better than I was expecting.

Dave wrote: It's possible to estimate the non-auction 8K orders by using the number of patrons in the patron runs. Of course, the assumption is that everyone with patron status will sign up for a patron run. That seems pretty reasonable to me.

Do we have data on how many Patron runs there have been each year? I agree with you that the vast majority (maybe 100%) of possible Patron runs are signed up for.

Endgame wrote: Here is Marc's chart for historical auctions (source:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1984123900 )

and the extracted chart from it:

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Looks like 2022 did better than I was expecting.

Is that based on "token year" or something? I wonder if the number of months, and months of the year, for each token season are consistent over that time period. I seem to recall design moving around considerably, and maybe the pre-order and availability of new tokens moved around as well.

If 2024 has had ~1/2 the auctions of 2023 in 19 days I'd say it's probably on pace for the largest number of auctions of any year.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Endgame wrote: Here is Marc's chart for historical auctions (source:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1984123900 )

and the extracted chart from it:

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Looks like 2022 did better than I was expecting.

Is that based on "token year" or something? I wonder if the number of months, and months of the year, for each token season are consistent over that time period. I seem to recall design moving around considerably, and maybe the pre-order and availability of new tokens moved around as well.

If 2024 has had ~1/2 the auctions of 2023 in 19 days I'd say it's probably on pace for the largest number of auctions of any year.

The chart on post 7 shows we're behind in auctions at this point in time from last year. Hopefully we can make up the difference over the course of the year. Trent's auctions seem to be the only ones closing currently.