TOPIC: 2023 vs 2022 auctions

Mike Steele wrote: This year just feels different to me, not just in significantly fewer new token sales but in a drop in secondary value of many (most?) tokens. Next year will be interesting to see how much token sales rebound, I hope it is significant.

Certainly the secondary market seems way down, especially for URs.

I've been running ebay auctions offering tokens at:

Kilt of Dungeonbane - $189
Ioun Stone Platinum Nugget - $99
Ioun tone Gold Nugget - $99
Bead of Bounty - $89

On and off for a few months with no takers. Which is surprising based on historical pricing for URTEs and eldritch pieces.

I'm not sure what the drivers are, but it definitely feels like there has been a major sea change in what people are willing to pay for URs on the secondary market that has come about over the last year or two.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Endgame wrote: Here is Marc's chart for historical auctions (source:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7tAWpTfxqziJz73Cmwl2CnU5TBm59alDY2GX1JDdw4/edit#gid=1984123900 )

and the extracted chart from it:

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Looks like 2022 did better than I was expecting.

Is that based on "token year" or something? I wonder if the number of months, and months of the year, for each token season are consistent over that time period. I seem to recall design moving around considerably, and maybe the pre-order and availability of new tokens moved around as well.

If 2024 has had ~1/2 the auctions of 2023 in 19 days I'd say it's probably on pace for the largest number of auctions of any year.

It's based on token year (or "season" as I call it).

The months are decidedly not consistent across token seasons. But I'm calculating out the "open month" and "close month" of the auctions based on when pre-orders open and the auctions start.

Basically, I have the pre-order open dates in a table and record when the auctions start and end. Then I use DATEDIF in Google Sheets to calculate out the Open Month and Close Month:
support.google.com/docs/answer/6055612?hl=en&sjid=10447515045755153614-NC

This lets me normalize auctions by month across seasons, because I don't deal with messy things like "October" but rather months since pre-orders start.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: This year just feels different to me, not just in significantly fewer new token sales but in a drop in secondary value of many (most?) tokens. Next year will be interesting to see how much token sales rebound, I hope it is significant.

Certainly the secondary market seems way down, especially for URs.

I've been running ebay auctions offering tokens at:

Kilt of Dungeonbane - $189
Ioun Stone Platinum Nugget - $99
Ioun tone Gold Nugget - $99
Bead of Bounty - $89

On and off for a few months with no takers. Which is surprising based on historical pricing for URTEs and eldritch pieces.

I'm not sure what the drivers are, but it definitely feels like there has been a major sea change in what people are willing to pay for URs on the secondary market that has come about over the last year or two.

I'm especially surprised that there weren't any takers for Gold Nuggets at $99.