TOPIC: Is Path to Enlightenment Fragment 2 Worth over $2,000?

Much like the Skull of Cavadar and Skull Con, I expect that after Ring Con the Mark will be worth far less.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

David Autzen wrote: Seeing the demand for Fragment 2, I am planning to sell my Fragment 1. I had hoped to complete the Path but not at those prices!

I see one on one of the major TD sellers for 1k, I sold one a few months back, and I had to slowly lower the price down to $500 before it sold.

So the spread between the price of fragment 1 and 2 seems odd - I guess people want to catch up on fragment #2 while they are in print - but I think that's kind of nuts. History suggests you'll be able to get the entire transmuted Mark, whatever it is, for less than $3000 (maybe much less).

Dragon Orbs sold for $400-600 a piece while they were being released for a total of ~$2000-$2500 for a set of 8. You can get a whole ass Eldest Orb of Dragonkind for $1250 now.

RoSP has generally been the most valuable (non-artifact) TD token, and its market price has been $2,500 or less for at least a decade.

I doubt you'll be able to get a transmuted Mark for 3K, or even 5K. The transmuted Mark's will be individually named and customized. The Dragon Orb transmutes were more generic. Don't think people are going to want to part with their unique Token. But cash is cash, so maybe at some point.

As with everything in TD’s nebulous future plans, I take the customizability with a huge grain of salt.

For all we know the final marks customizability will be “choose one of these 6 options: +3 to STR, +3 to DEX, … etc.”

Time will tell - but I’ll bet you a shiny dime one can buy either a completed enlightenment token, or all the fragments needed to craft one, for under $2250 on or before November 1st 2027.

I believe you get to name your Token. And maybe customize the image of the Mark. If that holds, most people won't ever sell theirs. Time will tell.

Rob F wrote: General comment: With the new TE Bead launching I'm guessing there will be more 8K auctions funding next year and if so, Path 3 shouldn't cost as much.

With half of in person events being starter packs only and probably less than 300 different people for VTD, I don't expect see bead to increase auctions unless folks are speculating on the future. You can still get the 2023 bead for somewhere around $55 in Trent auctions if you want to make a COA.

edwin wrote:

Rob F wrote: General comment: With the new TE Bead launching I'm guessing there will be more 8K auctions funding next year and if so, Path 3 shouldn't cost as much.

With half of in person events being starter packs only and probably less than 300 different people for VTD, I don't expect see bead to increase auctions unless folks are speculating on the future. You can still get the 2023 bead for somewhere around $55 in Trent auctions if you want to make a COA.

There are plenty who will want 10....

You know, just in case.

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote:

edwin wrote:

Rob F wrote: General comment: With the new TE Bead launching I'm guessing there will be more 8K auctions funding next year and if so, Path 3 shouldn't cost as much.

With half of in person events being starter packs only and probably less than 300 different people for VTD, I don't expect see bead to increase auctions unless folks are speculating on the future. You can still get the 2023 bead for somewhere around $55 in Trent auctions if you want to make a COA.

There are plenty who will want 10....

You know, just in case.

Even without considering CoA transmutes, everyone that has any interest in more treasure pulls is going to want one, and as you said there will be quite a few people buying 10 or more each.

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote:

edwin wrote:

Rob F wrote: General comment: With the new TE Bead launching I'm guessing there will be more 8K auctions funding next year and if so, Path 3 shouldn't cost as much.

With half of in person events being starter packs only and probably less than 300 different people for VTD, I don't expect see bead to increase auctions unless folks are speculating on the future. You can still get the 2023 bead for somewhere around $55 in Trent auctions if you want to make a COA.

There are plenty who will want 10....

Raises hand.

Rob F wrote:

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote:

edwin wrote:

Rob F wrote: General comment: With the new TE Bead launching I'm guessing there will be more 8K auctions funding next year and if so, Path 3 shouldn't cost as much.

With half of in person events being starter packs only and probably less than 300 different people for VTD, I don't expect see bead to increase auctions unless folks are speculating on the future. You can still get the 2023 bead for somewhere around $55 in Trent auctions if you want to make a COA.

There are plenty who will want 10....

Raises hand.

High Five!

I think just the ability to have a token personalized with your name would make the transmuted token (and therefore the ingredients for transmuting) or at least worth quite a lot to a lot of people. Who knows if this opportunity will come up again? It's a very personal connection to the game and community we enjoy. Add in the benefit of whatever the token does plus the extra special adventure it lets you do at Ring Con and I'm not surprised at the prices it is selling for. People pay quite a bit for a Golden Ticket token and you don't even get to keep that after the run.

The 2nd piece of any of the premium transmutes always seems to be the most expensive. I think the first one people get for novelty, the second one most of the community forgot about the transmute or just didn't care about it, then once it is needed to finish the transmute, the pricing jumps. This year is odd that the price is jumping while it is still available.

The other reason for the price spike is that 8K auctions won't fund now without either the premium items spiking in price or trade good prices spiking. PYP's going for $30 meaning reducing the overall gross of the auction by $1,920 (32 PYPs at $60 less than the usual $90ish.) Given time, you'll see enough bids pop in for trade goods and the premium items (plus whatever extras may be added to get one to fund) to result in it funding.

My guess is the fragment is most valuable to people who want to complete the Path transmute year one. After that, the completed item will likely drop down to RoSP or Orb of Dragonkind prices ($1,500-$2,500.) It's hard to tell, though, since we don't know what the transmute will do and fewer people may be making it than made Rods or Orbs.

When the transmute was going to have the name of the person who did it on the token, I think the transmute value was higher (even if it wasn't soulbound.) It might make sense for TD to start workshopping what the transmute will do. It would also drive more interest if it tied into Ringcon somehow as well.

Fred

A reason PYPs are so low is because people are allocating more money to the other pieces of the auction due to how auctions are only slightly open ended.

Take away the Fragment, the Rings, the Marks, and a batch of 8k auctions would still fund every year. Maybe not as many, maybe not as fast.

Then, if just had fewer auctions fire, PYPs would go up in value due to decreased supply. My last company had a pandemic spike in sales that it didn't forecast a correction to, and it's going to bankrupt them. Expecting some correction to the creation of VTD's effect on demand would not be unreasonable.

Regardless of how many Fragment 2's end up being bought, there will certainly not be an even distribution between Fragment 1 and Fragment 2. I don't expect the distribution of Fragment 3 or Fragment 4 to be perfectly aligned either. The end result will be incomplete sets of Fragments.

I don't think it would be a good practice to have an 8K reward token end up being worthless. My hope is that this follows a similar path to the Dragon Orbs. 1 of each unique fragment = Mark of Enlightenment and all that comes with that (Personalized text and access to event at Ring Con). But then any 4 Fragments = Something that's just a little less.

I think this would help auction sales in the next couple of years if people knew they could get something for the Fragments without trying to find and spend a small fortune on Fragment 2.

Fred K wrote: When the transmute was going to have the name of the person who did it on the token, I think the transmute value was higher (even if it wasn't soulbound.) It might make sense for TD to start workshopping what the transmute will do. It would also drive more interest if it tied into Ringcon somehow as well.

I thought this was still the case? I may be misremembering or have missed an update somewhere, but I'd understood that while the tokens would not be soulbound they would still have "crafted by Fred" or something similar printed on them.