TOPIC: Price Guide Confusion

<br />I think the priceguide is flawed beyond measure when you try to compare chips to a monetary value. It's one thing for the token values to have consistancy among themselves, but linking them to cash has always been ridiculous. It also only has a tenuous connection with reality. There aren't enough trades for each item, there's self-report/selection bias, etc. At best, it's someone's guesstimate and that makes it little better than someone else's guesstimate.<br />

<br /><br />Imperfect? Yes.  And I know it might seem like voodoo to some, but the monetary values are ground in logic, economic theory, and statistical analysis as I explained before.  But the solution is simple really.  If you don't like it, don't use it. 

I seriously doubt how much of those three it has, but I'm more than willing to accept it has a double dose of voodoo. Besides being suspect in the #'s, I also think that pricing tokens is a generally poor idea. It's one thing to set everything up against a gold system and another to try to put a dollar value on things. It just seems to sully the whole thing.

<br />Hi Douglas,<br /><br />Your formula didn't take into account the 25, 50, and 100 bag orders for the 2007 tokens - it sounds like they will be a sizeable percentage this year of the total orders.  The shipping costs are much less significant for those, so that would lower the average token bag cost somewhere between where you calculated and the $6.66 price I was estimating.  <br />

<br /><br />Not sure I see where the $6.66 comes from but like I mentioned, I agree.  Averaging in the "cheaper" pouches would make the $ equivalancy more accurate.  It is something that has been in the back of my mind for a while.<br /><br />

<br />Since the ratio of GP value to $ value stays constant, if a token increases in value due to recorded trades, in order to keep the average cost at $10.00, don't you have to arbitrarily lower some other token's value?  I guess we just have a disgreement on forcing the token values to certain levels in order to average $10 per bag.  I'm sure that isn't done in the price guides of any other collectible field.  But - you're putting all the work into the price guide, so it's your call how it's done  <br />

<br /><br />Actually, the GP to $ ratio changes with fluctuations in prices.  It is a sum of the average values per pouch.  <br /><br />Granted, this forcing function for small fluctuations is grounding in idealism and economic theory more so than actual trades which is necessary because of the small scale economy we track.  But the effect is real and would be more evident on a larger scale (like the stock market for example).  Its when you go outside of this stablity point, that you would see a correction.  The size of the stability region is inversely proportional to the size of the economy.  <br /><br />Ultimately, without the application of economic theory to determine both relative and absolute monetary values, you would need to rely on actual trades which would be so convoluted and absurd as to be completely unusable.  Like I mentioned, through the application of economic theory, you do get close.<br /><br />Look at it another way.  100GPs has some monetary value.  People on average would pay $X for 100GPs what ever that number is.  If you auctioned off GPs for $ for some extended period of time, you would find that ratio.  So there does exist a conversion from GPs to $ something one can use to convert the GPs in the price guide to $.  I estimate this from the other direction, by looking at the $ people spend and the GPs they get back in the form of tokens.  And currently people are spending $8-$10 (which ever number you want to use) and get back ~300GP on average.  And with this ratio, you have a relatively close estimate for the monetary value of the tokens.  That part is pretty straightforward actually.  <br /><br />Sorry if this is a little long winded.  I guess its the engineer (and business) coming out of me as well.  :cool:

Okay, I have to say, Bro I'm right there with you, this makes my head hurt. I am glad I didn't have to answer this.<br /><br />But may I interject a thought. I don't see the point of argueing yes well you're not factoring in the free bags, or shipping cost.<br />Cause once you go there, you would have to factor in the free bags that were given away last year with each run, what some 4,000 + bags?<br /><br />Pardon me, but aren't the numbers supposed to be derived from trade data? I mean something is only worth as much as someone it willing to pay for it?<br />Can you seriously see this kind of negotiating, <br />'You bought that bag at the con, you didn't have to pay shipping so your elven chain isn't worth as much.'<br />Or 'That bag of tokens was free to you! So those tokens have no value, I'm sorry I can't trade tokens with you because it would be devalueing my bag of tokens that I bought and had to pay shipping for.'<br /><br />I mean do you really see token traders getting into those kinds of conversations?<br />Now obviously I could be clearly wrong, after all what do I know? I haven't been in the trading position since wench as 04'. Anyways that was my little thought though.

<br />Okay, I have to say, Bro I'm right there with you, this makes my head hurt. I am glad I didn't have to answer this.<br /><br />But may I interject a thought. I don't see the point of argueing yes well you're not factoring in the free bags, or shipping cost.<br />Cause once you go there, you would have to factor in the free bags that were given away last year with each run, what some 4,000 + bags?<br /><br />Pardon me, but aren't the numbers supposed to be derived from trade data? I mean something is only worth as much as someone it willing to pay for it?<br />Can you seriously see this kind of negotiating, <br />'You bought that bag at the con, you didn't have to pay shipping so your elven chain isn't worth as much.'<br />Or 'That bag of tokens was free to you! So those tokens have no value, I'm sorry I can't trade tokens with you because it would be devalueing my bag of tokens that I bought and had to pay shipping for.'<br /><br />I mean do you really see token traders getting into those kinds of conversations?<br />Now obviously I could be clearly wrong, after all what do I know? I haven't been in the trading position since wench as 04'. Anyways that was my little thought though.<br />

<br /><br />I agree, it seems that the values would be better derived from trade / sale data than from linking them to the price of a bag of tokens.  Maybe a generic price for tokens with no trade data (20 cents commons, $1 uncommons, $7.50 Rares, or whatever), and then adjust once actual trade data comes in.  And of course initially make educated guesses on tokens, as some are clearly going to be more valuable than others.<br /><br />That said, I recognize that Douglas has put a TON of work into his priceguide, and I really appreciate it!  I'm not sure how accurate it is as far as $ values go - but it really can't be since there are so few token sales.  It is great for seeing relative values of tokens and GP Values of them, and even though the real value of a token is what someone is willing to pay, I think the guide is great as a starting point, and for new collectors that have no real knowledge of the relative values on their own.  <br /><br />Thanks, Douglas!!<br /><br />Mike

Someone say VOODOO?

*flying tackle pounces bro and movie quote* Who do?

you do!

Do what?  =D

Remind me of the babe!<br /><br />WHOO HOO - just what this thread needed!

The thread is officially derailed (not that there's anything wrong with that...)<br /><br />Mike

<br />Remind me of the babe!<br /><br />WHOO HOO - just what this thread needed!<br />

<br /><br />Didja hear that? He called me a babe.  =D