TOPIC: Price Guide Confusion

You got me sis!

Bamp bah bamp bah, I got you bro =D <br />I pronounce Price Guide Confusion, officially thread-jacked by bro and sis. <br />Thank you, we're here all week! <br />

<br />Pardon me, but aren't the numbers supposed to be derived from trade data? I mean something is only worth as much as someone it willing to pay for it?<br />

<br /><br />Just to reiterate for everyone listening, this data IS based on captured trades.  It gets a little complex for large trades and requires some advanced mathematics which I can explain if anyone is interested.  But yet, in a perfect world where there were sales and data points every day, you could diverge from economic theory and just capture the trades exclusively.<br /><br />But the TD economy is such that you would see token sales infrequently and even then it is likely to be on a larger scale, (e.g. 10 tokens for $100).  So how would you say that what token 2 vs. token 4 in that collection actually sold for.  There are methods, and for you math people out there, simultaneous system of linear equations is one.<br /><br />Like I mentioned, the problem with capturing actual sales is that the $ values would become stale or just missing.  You would have prices that might be 3 years old and don't reflect the true value of the token.  But is it worth capturing it because it was an actual sale?  <br /><br />

<br />Can you seriously see this kind of negotiating, <br />'You bought that bag at the con, you didn't have to pay shipping so your elven chain isn't worth as much.'<br />Or 'That bag of tokens was free to you! So those tokens have no value, I'm sorry I can't trade tokens with you because it would be devalueing my bag of tokens that I bought and had to pay shipping for.'<br />I mean do you really see token traders getting into those kinds of conversations?<br />

<br /><br />No, no, no.  Of course not.  This formula is exclusively for estimating value and not cost.  A pouch received as a gift is not worthless.  Value is determined by average cost as Mike pointed out and if you really want to, take a look at the formula I have which gets close.  This establishes value for all tokens regardless of origin.<br /><br />But like I mentioned, the conversion to $ is pretty straight forward and won't even make your head hurt.  I promise.  =)  100GP has some $ value.  In other words, in a free market liquid economy, you can sell your GP for cash.  This is a fact that I don't think people would dispute.  What is that value?  Well, I estimate it to get people in the ballpark.  I go backwards and look at how much people are spending in $ and how much GP value they are getting.  This establishes a ration GP/$ which is around 30GP/$.  <br /><br />Again, any Price Guide is has its imperfections, incomplete or selective sampling and a certain level of subjectiveness.  Thats why they are "Guides".  And honestly, because of the lack of quantity with trade data, this is the only way to do it.  Otherwise, you would have gaps, internal inconsistencies, and stale prices, that would ultimately be absurd to the point of being unusable.  <br /><br />By the way, while I might not the sharpest tool in the shed and while there are imperfections in my approach, I do have an MBA, a M.S. in Engineering, and 13 years buying/selling/trading in Magic, that helps to some small degree pull this Guide together.  So its not complete voodoo.  =|<br /><br />But again, if you don't like the prices in the Guide, I strongly encourage you to determine your own price, buy/sell at that price and if you are successful in finding a seller/buyer, let me know how it went!<br /><br />Thanks everyone!<br />-Douglas<br />

I think the thing that bugs me most is do trades reflect non-trade perceptions of value.<br /><br />For example - if I value the +2 Mace more than the DS Shield...but never make a trade - then my perception is not part of the influenced value...<br /><br />To make maybe a better case, if five of the top collectors have a certain token and don't ever trade for it then is the value not skewed lower than it should be?<br /><br />I know the logic has always been - it only gets a value consideration IF someone is willing to pay it...but what value will go on the HORN since most everyone that did a package GOT ONE?<br /><br />Bro

Douglas<br /><br />I was by no means trying to argue with you. I was just kinda pointing out it seems silly to try and argue that shipping or free bags should be factored into value when its based on something else, recorded trade data.<br /><br />And Bro,<br />To me the guide just reflects the average of what people have been willing to trade tokens for in the past. It does not and cannot list what every individuals preceived value of items is.<br /><br />Certainly I could never and would never sell/trade tokens that have been given me. A trade no matter what its GP value would never equal what they are worth to me. And I certainly wouldn't expect the guide to reflect my valuation of those items as that would definitely be skewed and not averaged cause you know average/normalacy was never my strong point. <br /><br />

OK - but avoiding certain perceived values is not going to work to accurately represent the tokens methinks.  Just showing trade data does not cover the entire population - and what happens if only the BIG traders are trading for an item...like the 10pt healing potion...if collectors are going insane trying to get that one to finish a set - then the value is much higher than what the item has as far as game value.  But there I go mixing apples and oranges.<br /><br />I think the best we can all do is to post our sales and trades and keep an eye on trade trends - if the top PURPS are going for $200 and Guide shows them at $75 then we know there is a gap.  The only concern for me is traders getting taken advantage of - those who may use Guide as the LAW.  For those folks I hope they sell on eBay where there is at least a chance they can get what the Token is worth.<br /><br />OH - That reminds me - there are some nice 2004 tokens on eBay...I'm bidding this time around as the un-numbered +1 Quarterstaff looks really COOL!<br /><br />

<br />OK - but avoiding certain perceived values is not going to work to accurately represent the tokens methinks.  Just showing trade data does not cover the entire population - and what happens if only the BIG traders are trading for an item...like the 10pt healing potion...if collectors are going insane trying to get that one to finish a set - then the value is much higher than what the item has as far as game value.  But there I go mixing apples and oranges.<br /><br />I think the best we can all do is to post our sales and trades and keep an eye on trade trends - if the top PURPS are going for $200 and Guide shows them at $75 then we know there is a gap.  The only concern for me is traders getting taken advantage of - those who may use Guide as the LAW.  For those folks I hope they sell on eBay where there is at least a chance they can get what the Token is worth.<br /><br />OH - That reminds me - there are some nice 2004 tokens on eBay...I'm bidding this time around as the un-numbered +1 Quarterstaff looks really COOL!<br /><br /><br />

<br /><br />Hey Bro, I thought that was you that I was bidding against - once again on the same wavelength!!  Hope we don't bid each other into the stratosphere  =D<br /><br />Bro

<br />I think the thing that bugs me most is do trades reflect non-trade perceptions of value.<br />For example - if I value the +2 Mace more than the DS Shield...but never make a trade - then my perception is not part of the influenced value...<br />

<br /><br />Thats correct and perceptions cannot and should not be factored in to the price.  Think about the stock market.  I may think that a stock is worthless, but if people are buying and selling at some price, then THAT is the value and my perception of the value will not come into play unless I make a trade.  <br /><br />Not only that, but how would you factor perceptions into the price anyway.  There are thousands of perceived values for each token.  If you think a token is twice the listed value, then there is virtually no change to the average percieved value.  Now granted not everyone has been polled on the value of every token but there are trades that do point to a particular value.<br /><br /><br />

<br />I was just kinda pointing out it seems silly to try and argue that shipping or free bags should be factored into value when its based on something else, recorded trade data.<br />

<br /><br />Joyus, the GP values are based on recorded trade data but actual sales are much rarer.  The issue that was being discussed was the translation to $ which depends on cost per pack and hence free packs and shipping do influence this.  The cost in $ per pack drives the cost in $ per token.  <br />

How about this - I will sell my +2 Mace to Mike for $250 and he will sell it back to me for $250.<br /><br />There - two trades at $250 - the price we both feel it is worth.<br /><br />No longer a perception.

<br />How about this - I will sell my +2 Mace to Mike for $250 and he will sell it back to me for $250.<br /><br />There - two trades at $250 - the price we both feel it is worth.<br /><br />No longer a perception.<br />

<br /><br />Gary, trades depend on the intent to actually sell or buy and at the best price possible.  Otherwise, I could "sell" my Ring of Evasion to someone for $1 and buy it back for $1.  Should that be taken into consideration?  Of course not.  Someone might have been willing to sell it to Mike for less than $250 or buy it from you for more.  Its highest bid and the lowest ask that constrains value.<br /><br />

Intent is a perception of value - not a real sale...I would not intend to sell even a double mace for less than $250.  Hence my value of $250.

<br />Intent is a perception of value - not a real sale...I would not intend to sell even a double mace for less than $250.  Hence my value of $250.<br />

<br /><br />And thats OK.  People can have individual values for tokens.  The question is, what should get included in the Price Guide.  If I would never sell my Ring of Evasion for less than $1,000,000, should that percevied value get factored into the Price Guide as well?  <br /><br />