TOPIC: The Problem with the Common Distribution...

After reading some comments from people I took a random sample from 30 different 100-pack cases of tokens.  What I found I did not like.  I am in the process of writing a nice letter to the factory, but what I want to say is this.<br /><br />We are very sorry if the Common distribution of your tokens was not perfectly random.  Heck, one of packs in my test group had 4 of the same thing.  I very much appreciate everyone's understanding, and I am thankful that we have not been flamed for the weird Common thing.<br /><br />In order to make sure this problem does not happen again, we are going to go back to our age-old practice of hand-sorting and hand-packing the tokens into velvet pouches.  We will be doing the sorting and packing, so there will be no more weird Common distributions.  Alas, there will be no more shrink-wrapped token packs as we are in the process of opening them all into big bins.  Note that you still might receive 2 identical tokens in your pouch -- as there is a small chance that could occur in a normal random pull.<br /><br />Thanks to everyone for their feedback, thanks to my in-laws for re-bagging 500 token packs yesterday, and thanks to all gamers who posted nice comments about the tokens.  I think all the work that many people put into them was worth it.  We have some cool tokens.

Thanks, Jeff!  I think the reason you haven't heard too many complaints is, with really large orders like most people got, even if individual packs have 3-5 of an individual token, once you've opened 30 (or 120 or more) packs, it tends to even out more.  I do think it's a good idea to open them up though and make sure there aren't as many duplicates (and I got more than my share of packs with LOTS of the same commons, one pack only had two different commons with 3 of one and 4 of another), because when someone is opening up their one pack of tokens at GENCON, they won't be happy to get 5 daggers (or whatever) out of their 10 tokens.  <br /><br />I'm glad I got the shrink-wrapped tokens though - they were quite cool, with the TD logo on the side and everything! <br /><br />Thanks for making sure the product is top-notch!  <br /><br />Mike

I cross posted this over at the GC forums for you Jeff.

Mike probably hit it on the head with the size of the early orders equalizing things a little.  Overall I had a fairly good mix, but there were some packets that could have been devastating to an individual who got that packet going into the dungeon.  I have no complaints.  I think the shrink wrapped tokens were fantastic.  Overall the program took a major step upward in my opinion.<br /><br /><br />Widseth

I didn't even look at my commons. Checked the R and the UC and then dumped the rest into a big box for later sorting. If other people hadn't mentioned it, I would never have known.

And - how cool is it that Jeff had 30,000 tokens there (30 100 pack cases) to do samples from???   I'd love to see a photo of 30,000 tokens all in one place   =D

I made myself sort everything as I was opening the packs and it was all fun - otherwise it would have seemed like a chore to sort through all the commons afterwards. <br /><br />

<br />I didn't even look at my commons. Checked the R and the UC and then dumped the rest into a big box for later sorting. If other people hadn't mentioned it, I would never have known.<br />

<br />I didn't even look at my commons. Checked the R and the UC and then dumped the rest into a big box for later sorting. If other people hadn't mentioned it, I would never have known.<br />

<br /><br />BTW, I love the Avatar Henwy.  Too funny...for me and Doug -- the rest think you are weird.<br /><br />Also, I owe you a prize for figuring "Foss Altus" out so fast.  See me at GenCon.  (Or I guess I could include it in your next order.  =D)

Out of my 12 bags, only one had a problem that way - one had 5 of the same common item (it was a good one though, so no big deal).  Like Widseth said, it would mostly be a problem for someone if that was their bag for a dungeon run.<br /><br />Brian<br />

I think the COMMON distribution problem is much smaller an issue comparred to the RARE problem.  (At least I think I am hearing more people say things like - I got 7 "gauntlet" REDS but no "platemail"...)<br /><br />People are reporting things like getting 6-8 of an item in 60-80 bags...while at the same time they did not get a single Platemail or something...That seems against the odds or standard deviation thing.<br /><br />It is too bad that hand sorting has to be done to ensure better common distribution, but if TD will go to that much trouble for commons, perhaps we can address the RARES as well.<br /><br />It sure seems to me that IF a person buys 80-100 bags - (at least twice the number of rares in the set) they should have a complete set of REDS.  I've opened 140 bags and do not have a full set.  That seems more of a problem to me than the one bag I opened to find 5 grapple hooks or the two bags I opened to find 4 daggers and 4 short swords...<br /><br />Is there a way 80-100 bag lots can be created so that a person can be assured a full set of REDS?  I know this defeats the random factor, but you have to admit if 140 bags can't get a set - there is a problem leaving things up to random luck. (People will question how random it really was...)  Some if not most CCGs do this when you get an entire case - you usually get a full set evenly distributed and within a certain standard deviation.<br /><br />If fixing the Rares is not seen as a priority, I doubt I will understand fixing the commons...spare TD the time and headache of hand sorting for 2-3 bags with 3-5 commons.  If this happens 3-5 times in 150 bags - then the Coaches can have things on hand to give out to the person so afflicted...<br /><br />I think more focus should be on the Rares...

There was an experiment in one of my Statistics classes once where 1/2 the class was asked to write down a hundred "random" zeros and 1s.  01001101110001011010, etc.<br /><br />And the other 1/2 of the class was asked to generate a hundred random 0's and 1's using a computer.<br /><br />The Professor then went through and was able to easily pick out the real random from the selected random selections of 0's and 1's.  The main difference between the two sets of papers was the "rare" strings of many 0's or many 1's together.  In other words, the selected 0/1s usually never went longer than a string of 4 of either a 0 or a 1.  But in reality, randomness has a tendency to have a wider variation than we typically expect.<br /><br />I say this because I crunched the numbers for Random Common distribution and found that on average <br />36% of all packs will have a pair in it<br />5% will have two pair<br />2% will have a three of a kind<br />0.1% will have a four of a kind<br /><br />I'm not saying that their isn't a sorting problem but if you ordered 100 packs, then only 57 of those packs will have all unique commons and two of the packs on average will have 3 of a kind.  Further, receiving as few as 6 of one common and or as many as 32 is fairly typical.<br /><br />Statistics are funny sometimes.  =)<br /><br /><br />

Sorry if some have had some bad Rare luck.  Since they are on the top of each 10-pack it was easy for me to check those when they came in.  It was the first thing I did.  The boxes I opened looked fine to me -- but I did not open all the boxes of course.<br /><br />Maybe Douglas can chime in here with some more statistical knowledge.  I would be interested to know how many Reds a person can expect from buying 80 bags.  My gut says something like 32, but I could be wrong.<br /><br />I'll go and pull 50 random 10-packs and note their Red token on top.  I'll post the results and maybe Douglas can tell me if there is a weird problem.  Thanks for letting me know about a potential problem.<br /><br />