TOPIC: Should TD continue to add items to 8K auctions to help them fund?

Mike Steele wrote: Newer UR prices seem to be tanking on average, and the consensus seems to be that it is largely because of a lot more URs in circulation from both treasure and token purchases. If we increase the amount of URs, won't that just accelerate the UR glut?

Yep, the problem is too many UR's getting out there... several reasons are causing this as talked about before...

And the problem with props is that MANY of them don't fit into a Small Flat-Rate Priority Mail box!!! LOL

I hope TD continues to throw in little quirky bonuses. Seems like harmless fun at minimal cost (and to be honest I doubt its having much effect on trade good prices. Even if an auction failed, odds are good another one would happen soon enough anyway).

TD is free to add whatever they want yo 8K auctions, as is an auctioneer.

Treasure Chips were previously being given to entice people to order early, ostensibly to fund that year's props and operations.

We have likely passed the point where that is necessary.

Ultimately I like the add on, and have done so myself.

It would be naive to think any add on don't drop other prices.

Rob F wrote: I’ve noticed over the last month or so that TD continues to add items (Grunnel small favor scroll, props, Tokens, etc.) to help 8K auctions fund. On the one hand it’s great because it helps the auction fund, on the other hand it devalues the Tokens in the auction. One could also argue that to be fair to all 8K buyers, any Tokens added to 8K auctions should be added to all 8K orders placed.

Thoughts???

I am only dealing with 2 data points -- my 2 auctions I ran this season. The first was a pre-order, the second just ended.

Average UR prices went from $87.92 up to $90.45 (+2.9%).
Average Trade Goods prices went up from $2.82 to $2.93 (+3.9%).
Average 1K Gold dropped from $12.25 down to $12.07 (-1.5%).
Average Ring of the 4th Circle jumped from $88.75 to $108.75 (+22.5%).

So in general, I would say the add-ons did not devalue the tokens which matter most -- except the very slight decrease in 1K Gold..

Beertram wrote:

Rob F wrote: I’ve noticed over the last month or so that TD continues to add items (Grunnel small favor scroll, props, Tokens, etc.) to help 8K auctions fund. On the one hand it’s great because it helps the auction fund, on the other hand it devalues the Tokens in the auction. One could also argue that to be fair to all 8K buyers, any Tokens added to 8K auctions should be added to all 8K orders placed.

Thoughts???

I am only dealing with 2 data points -- my 2 auctions I ran this season. The first was a pre-order, the second just ended.

Average UR prices went from $87.92 up to $90.45 (+2.9%).
Average Trade Goods prices went up from $2.82 to $2.93 (+3.9%).
Average 1K Gold dropped from $12.25 down to $12.07 (-1.5%).
Average Ring of the 4th Circle jumped from $88.75 to $108.75 (+22.5%).

So in general, I would say the add-ons did not devalue the tokens which matter most -- except the very slight decrease in 1K Gold..

Thanks for the data. Outside of the items TD added were there any other differences between the auctions? Path Fragment included in both? funding targets the same? etc.?

With regard to increasing PYPs, or otherwise changing what goes into an 8k order, here is some economic reasoning:

1. The value of an $8,000 order's components (including all bonuses, add-ons, expected value due to a Golden Ticket, etc.) on the secondary market will tend to never much exceed $8,000 for any long period of time.

This is because if one could resell the components of an $8,000 order for, say, $10,000, people would just start rapidly doing that until supply and demand evened out.

2. This means TD can't really "increase" the value of an $8k order by adding stuff to it. If TD were to add 8,000 URs per 8k order, what would happen is the price of URs would crash to under $1 each.

All TD can do is change the relative value of the components inside an $8k order with one another.

Adding more URs to an 8k order will have some combination of results of:
* Lowering the value of URs
* Lowering the value of everything but URs
Because the total value of everything in the order has to stay fixed at not-much-more thank $8k.

3. One should note, while value of the components of an $8k order on the secondary market can't much exceed $8,000 for long, it can drop far below $8,000 for an indefinite period. This would be a very bad thing for TD and our hobby.

Rob F wrote: Thanks for the data. Outside of the items TD added were there any other differences between the auctions? Path Fragment included in both? funding targets the same? etc.?

The first was the onyx UR option and the second was the 34 gold UR option. The first one did not have the Patron Pin/Code included and the second did not have the Fragment included. The 2nd one had more augmentation from me.

I don't think any of that is very relevant to the prices of the URs/TGs/1Ks/rings.

Matthew Hayward wrote: With regard to increasing PYPs, or otherwise changing what goes into an 8k order, here is some economic reasoning:

1. The value of an $8,000 order's components (including all bonuses, add-ons, expected value due to a Golden Ticket, etc.) on the secondary market will tend to never much exceed $8,000 for any long period of time.

This is because if one could resell the components of an $8,000 order for, say, $10,000, people would just start rapidly doing that until supply and demand evened out.

2. This means TD can't really "increase" the value of an $8k order by adding stuff to it. If TD were to add 8,000 URs per 8k order, what would happen is the price of URs would crash to under $1 each.

All TD can do is change the relative value of the components inside an $8k order with one another.

Adding more URs to an 8k order will have some combination of results of:
* Lowering the value of URs
* Lowering the value of everything but URs
Because the total value of everything in the order has to stay fixed at not-much-more thank $8k.

3. One should note, while value of the components of an $8k order on the secondary market can't much exceed $8,000 for long, it can drop far below $8,000 for an indefinite period. This would be a very bad thing for TD and our hobby.

I think concern about #3 happening is why TD is trying to increase/hold steady the price of Trade Item Tokens.

Beertram wrote:

Rob F wrote: Thanks for the data. Outside of the items TD added were there any other differences between the auctions? Path Fragment included in both? funding targets the same? etc.?

The first was the onyx UR option and the second was the 34 gold UR option. The first one did not have the Patron Pin/Code included and the second did not have the Fragment included. The 2nd one had more augmentation from me.

I don't think any of that is very relevant to the prices of the URs/TGs/1Ks/rings.

I believe it is. Two very different auctions. Run the exact same auction with the only difference being augmentation for one and that one will have cheaper UR, TG, etc. It has to.

Matthew Hayward wrote: With regard to increasing PYPs, or otherwise changing what goes into an 8k order, here is some economic reasoning:

1. The value of an $8,000 order's components (including all bonuses, add-ons, expected value due to a Golden Ticket, etc.) on the secondary market will tend to never much exceed $8,000 for any long period of time.

This is because if one could resell the components of an $8,000 order for, say, $10,000, people would just start rapidly doing that until supply and demand evened out.

2. This means TD can't really "increase" the value of an $8k order by adding stuff to it. If TD were to add 8,000 URs per 8k order, what would happen is the price of URs would crash to under $1 each.

All TD can do is change the relative value of the components inside an $8k order with one another.

Adding more URs to an 8k order will have some combination of results of:
* Lowering the value of URs
* Lowering the value of everything but URs
Because the total value of everything in the order has to stay fixed at not-much-more thank $8k.

3. One should note, while value of the components of an $8k order on the secondary market can't much exceed $8,000 for long, it can drop far below $8,000 for an indefinite period. This would be a very bad thing for TD and our hobby.

Thanks for the analysis Matt. And yep, #3 would be bad.

Rob F wrote:

Beertram wrote:

Rob F wrote: Thanks for the data. Outside of the items TD added were there any other differences between the auctions? Path Fragment included in both? funding targets the same? etc.?

The first was the onyx UR option and the second was the 34 gold UR option. The first one did not have the Patron Pin/Code included and the second did not have the Fragment included. The 2nd one had more augmentation from me.

I don't think any of that is very relevant to the prices of the URs/TGs/1Ks/rings.

I believe it is. Two very different auctions. Run the exact same auction with the only difference being augmentation for one and that one will have cheaper UR, TG, etc. It has to.

Nobody expects to get $8,000 for a non-augmented auction. They usually have a goal of about $7,500. So they are paying the last $500 for the 9-10 random URs and the chance to get the GT or AoTF. Those of us who add the augmentation are doing it to avoid paying the $500 and to cover any tokens we don't include in the auction. We generally start out a bit light on the augmentation and then add to it as needed. This is what prevents the augmentation from devaluing the other tokens.