TOPIC: WYC Treasure distribution

Part of the reason few veterans were pulling loot at WYC, except under duress, was that everyone knew there were no trophies, but few realized there were Fleeces to make up for it.

If the distribution is communicated early, there will probably be a lot more people willing to draw at WYC.

I knew there were fleeces. We didn't know the chance of getting one. I knew the chance for GenCon.

My feel was the varibilty of fleece draws would be much higher than that of trophies. So I was going for known and less volatile.

Harlax wrote: I knew there were fleeces. We didn't know the chance of getting one. I knew the chance for GenCon.

My feel was the varibilty of fleece draws would be much higher than that of trophies. So I was going for known and less volatile.

I agree but if trophies are going to be at 35% at Gen Con, then I am not worried about getting all that I will need there.

Someone more mathematically inclined than I can run the numbers and tell us theoretically how many pulls it would take to get 4 different tokens, but I think it is it is something like around only 25 pulls. Someone would need to confirm that. You have 35% of getting 1 MT, then a 26.25 chance of getting a different one than the first, then a 17.5 chance then a 8.75. Again I could be way off base with that. That would be to get 4 different ones. to get 4 that you could then trade for what you don't have you only need. One run (assuming you have a CoA), because it is just over 11 pulls.

Can someone check my math?

There are several ways to get to THE answer, but they require spreadsheets to figure out. For an approximation, first figure out, on average, how many MT's need to be drawn in order to get all 4. For example, after the first, the next has a 75% chance to be something different. After 2 different ones, it is a 50% chance to get a different one, and after you have 3, it is a 25% chance. On average it would be 8-9 MT draws to get one of each.

So at 35%, how long to get 9 MT draws. 25.7 is what I come up with, which matches what you came up with.

I came up with just under 24. 23 and some change.

But seems good to me. Yeah I am burning my draws WYC. 25 pulls to get a full set plus 4 other ones. We are going to be swimming in MT (again this is all assuming that it is 35%).

I'd be more interested in knowing what it takes to get two of each. Thinking about the next 3c or 4c.

Harlax wrote: I'd be more interested in knowing what it takes to get two of each. Thinking about the next 3c or 4c.

Between 25 and 50.

Sorry cannot do the actual math right now. But you don't need to get 2 sets on draws. You can trade them to even out your numbers like lots of us do on the forums post Gen Con. It has worked well for me for a number of years. In 25 pulls you are going to have about 8 so you can trade to get 2 sets.

Just looking through posts, the last number I saw for MT ratio was 23%. Not sure where I saw 35%. (probably imagined it? )

That would make the ratio for a complete set of 4 more like 36 draws.

Last post in this thread does have the 35% number that Druegar quoted Jeff on.

At GenCon 2015, my friends and I used about fifty treasure pulls on each of the four treasure boxes. Though, not statistically relavant, we did note a pattern of each of the four boxes having an individual monster trophy unique to that box? We don't know if it was by accident or design, but we burned the rest of our pulls evenly between the four!

Dennis Burdick wrote: At GenCon 2015, my friends and I used about fifty treasure pulls on each of the four treasure boxes. Though, not statistically relavant, we did note a pattern of each of the four boxes having an individual monster trophy unique to that box? We don't know if it was by accident or design, but we burned the rest of our pulls evenly between the four!

Between what I saved from WYC and what my group gathered at GenCon we had somewhat over 200 pulls.

I split up my pulls between all the boxes and pulled on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. I wound up with something like 43 trophies. i didn't notice any pattern by box, but I wasn't particularly looking for one either.

A couple of people have suggested including past year's Monster bits at WYC.

Personally, I'd really enjoy this because it would be fun to find old ingredients (even if they could only be made into fleece), and I agree that even with increased fleeces, I'd rather have monster bits.

It reduces variance, and I'd rather collect and transmute them myself. Transmuting is one of my favorite things about TD. I'm excited to transmute the new charm and shirt even though they won't go into my build, just because it's fun.

Though, a novelty Monster Bit - perhaps something like "Underduck Feather" would be pretty neat as well.