TOPIC: Contingency is a great spell

So with the very real possibility of a trade war looming and tokens being made in the land of the rising sun the Middle Kingdom would it behoove us to consider possible contingencies for next year incase of supply chain interuption?

Cards maybe, a throw back year of woodies, wherever trent gets his poker chips printed?

Really not trying to be a downer, so please stay positive, just want to be prepared as possible since were in such unprecedented times.

Stay positive, nobody wins a trade war so it won’t happen.

I’d like to see TD tokens made in the US, Canada, or at least not China.

But it’s hard to discuss without getting somewhat political even if that isn’t the intention. And I would rather keep politics out of TD.

Wayne Rhodes wrote: I’d like to see TD tokens made in the US, Canada, or at least not China.

But it’s hard to discuss without getting somewhat political even if that isn’t the intention. And I would rather keep politics out of TD.

Why would you rather see something made in not China? Especially something as mundane (and awesome) as tokens? And please know I don’t care about the politics, I’m literally just trying to gain information.

If this needs to go into the off topic area that seems like not a terrible thing.

macxdmg wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote: I’d like to see TD tokens made in the US, Canada, or at least not China.

But it’s hard to discuss without getting somewhat political even if that isn’t the intention. And I would rather keep politics out of TD.

Why would you rather see something made in not China? Especially something as mundane (and awesome) as tokens? And please know I don’t care about the politics, I’m literally just trying to gain information.

If this needs to go into the off topic area that seems like not a terrible thing.

Some of my reasons would be considered by some to be political.

That being said, having the tokens made in the US, Canada, or even Mexico makes there be less risk of the supply chain with the current way things are escalating. Also my guess is 99% of tokens are purchased in North America, so it’s not really a global product.

As TD gets bigger the temptation to counterfeit TD tokens will only increase. An estimated 80% of all counterfeit products come from China, and China does not seem to ever prosecute its citizens for the crime.
Based on the quality of MTG counterfeits from China of new cards it is most likely the counterfeit may be coming out of the same factory as the real deal.

Basically I feel China is a bad actor when it comes to commerce.

I hope I stayed enough away from politics.

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

macxdmg wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote: I’d like to see TD tokens made in the US, Canada, or at least not China.

But it’s hard to discuss without getting somewhat political even if that isn’t the intention. And I would rather keep politics out of TD.

Why would you rather see something made in not China? Especially something as mundane (and awesome) as tokens? And please know I don’t care about the politics, I’m literally just trying to gain information.

If this needs to go into the off topic area that seems like not a terrible thing.

Some of my reasons would be considered by some to be political.

That being said, having the tokens made in the US, Canada, or even Mexico makes there be less risk of the supply chain with the current way things are escalating. Also my guess is 99% of tokens are purchased in North America, so it’s not really a global product.

As TD gets bigger the temptation to counterfeit TD tokens will only increase. An estimated 80% of all counterfeit products come from China, and China does not seem to ever prosecute its citizens for the crime.
Based on the quality of MTG counterfeits from China of new cards it is most likely the counterfeit may be coming out of the same factory as the real deal.

Basically I feel China is a bad actor when it comes to commerce.

I hope I stayed enough away from politics.

TD would have to grow to many times it's current size before counterfeiting would become a big enough issue for it to be done at an "enterprise" level. Each year, TD gets a handful of counterfeiting attempts for big tokens like COAs but those aren't done commercially, it is most likely individuals using 3D printers or something like that.

The cost to do counterfeiting at a commercial scale is significant. It took until 3-4 years ago before Magic the Gathering started seeing commercial fake cards being produced by Chinese counterfeiters. Keep in mind, that is for a game that is the largest (by far) in the gaming industry generating $250M/year in revenue with a much simpler product to counterfeit. I can't see a large operation being formed to counterfeit TD as it just isn't that big. If you are going to try and make money counterfeiting something that requires plastics production, you can make FAR more money more easily counterfeiting name brand American products like Ray-Ban sunglasses or such.

TD uses China simply because they are far less expensive than manufacturing in the US. I've helped clients source international manufacturing partners. For runs this size, China is pretty hard to come within even half the cost (including shipping). The costs to have an alternate partner selected are significant and take time to set -up on both sides.

For this coming year, it wouldn't surprise me to see delays in Chinese products being shipped but they absolutely will be shipped. Apple and Google will guarantee China is producing again in short order. If Apple, alone, doesn't get the new iPhone out by end of the year, it will cost the US economy $70B per year and impact the 2.4M American jobs in the Apple supply chain. The stakes are too high for China to not be producing for the world. Apple's Cook announced in late February that China had resumed Apple manufacturing but the ramp back up to full production was slower than they hoped.

My guess is that new tokens will available but be late (barring something horrible happening at the actual plant doing the manufacturing.)

Fred

Fred K wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote:

macxdmg wrote:

Wayne Rhodes wrote: I’d like to see TD tokens made in the US, Canada, or at least not China.

But it’s hard to discuss without getting somewhat political even if that isn’t the intention. And I would rather keep politics out of TD.

Why would you rather see something made in not China? Especially something as mundane (and awesome) as tokens? And please know I don’t care about the politics, I’m literally just trying to gain information.

If this needs to go into the off topic area that seems like not a terrible thing.

Some of my reasons would be considered by some to be political.

That being said, having the tokens made in the US, Canada, or even Mexico makes there be less risk of the supply chain with the current way things are escalating. Also my guess is 99% of tokens are purchased in North America, so it’s not really a global product.

As TD gets bigger the temptation to counterfeit TD tokens will only increase. An estimated 80% of all counterfeit products come from China, and China does not seem to ever prosecute its citizens for the crime.
Based on the quality of MTG counterfeits from China of new cards it is most likely the counterfeit may be coming out of the same factory as the real deal.

Basically I feel China is a bad actor when it comes to commerce.

I hope I stayed enough away from politics.

TD would have to grow to many times it's current size before counterfeiting would become a big enough issue for it to be done at an "enterprise" level. Each year, TD gets a handful of counterfeiting attempts for big tokens like COAs but those aren't done commercially, it is most likely individuals using 3D printers or something like that.

The cost to do counterfeiting at a commercial scale is significant. It took until 3-4 years ago before Magic the Gathering started seeing commercial fake cards being produced by Chinese counterfeiters. Keep in mind, that is for a game that is the largest (by far) in the gaming industry generating $250M/year in revenue with a much simpler product to counterfeit. I can't see a large operation being formed to counterfeit TD as it just isn't that big. If you are going to try and make money counterfeiting something that requires plastics production, you can make FAR more money more easily counterfeiting name brand American products like Ray-Ban sunglasses or such.

TD uses China simply because they are far less expensive than manufacturing in the US. I've helped clients source international manufacturing partners. For runs this size, China is pretty hard to come within even half the cost (including shipping). The costs to have an alternate partner selected are significant and take time to set -up on both sides.

For this coming year, it wouldn't surprise me to see delays in Chinese products being shipped but they absolutely will be shipped. Apple and Google will guarantee China is producing again in short order. If Apple, alone, doesn't get the new iPhone out by end of the year, it will cost the US economy $70B per year and impact the 2.4M American jobs in the Apple supply chain. The stakes are too high for China to not be producing for the world. Apple's Cook announced in late February that China had resumed Apple manufacturing but the ramp back up to full production was slower than they hoped.

My guess is that new tokens will available but be late (barring something horrible happening at the actual plant doing the manufacturing.)

Fred

I’ll just say I have other reasons but then we get into world politics. I don’t want to discuss politics hear so just know I was posting reasons I feel are valid while not crossing the political line.

And I will accept you may be right about TD being to small a target to worry about, and to that point I hope you are right.

At this point I’m going to stop posting on this topic since I don’t want to cross the political line.

Picc wrote: So with the very real possibility of a trade war looming and tokens being made in the land of the rising sun would it behoove us to consider possible contingencies for next year incase of supply chain interuption?

Cards maybe, a throw back year of woodies, wherever trent gets his poker chips printed?

Really not trying to be a downer, so please stay positive, just want to be prepared as possible since were in such unprecedented times.

Just one little thing to nit Picc
Land of the Rising Sun is Japan- not where our tokens are manufactured.
They are manufactured in the Middle Kingdom

Bob Chasan wrote:

Picc wrote: So with the very real possibility of a trade war looming and tokens being made in the land of the rising sun would it behoove us to consider possible contingencies for next year incase of supply chain interuption?

Cards maybe, a throw back year of woodies, wherever trent gets his poker chips printed?

Really not trying to be a downer, so please stay positive, just want to be prepared as possible since were in such unprecedented times.

Just one little thing to nit Picc
Land of the Rising Sun is Japan- not where our tokens are manufactured.
They are manufactured in the Middle Kingdom

Corrected.

And just to reiterate, I dont want to get political at all, just to brainstorm some options in case next years token supply is delayed due to something unforeseen . If this year has tought us anything it's to expect black swans.

One thought I had today was maybe we could extend the condensed order options to smaller orders to keep product and shipping costs down. And or deliver trade good vouchers in a different format, ie a punch card equivalent to x of each common trade good. Again just brainstorming to try and be helpful not political or depressing.

Picc wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote:

Picc wrote: So with the very real possibility of a trade war looming and tokens being made in the land of the rising sun would it behoove us to consider possible contingencies for next year incase of supply chain interuption?

Cards maybe, a throw back year of woodies, wherever trent gets his poker chips printed?

Really not trying to be a downer, so please stay positive, just want to be prepared as possible since were in such unprecedented times.

Just one little thing to nit Picc
Land of the Rising Sun is Japan- not where our tokens are manufactured.
They are manufactured in the Middle Kingdom

Corrected.

And just to reiterate, I dont want to get political at all, just to brainstorm some options in case next years token supply is delayed due to something unforeseen . If this year has tought us anything it's to expect black swans.

One thought I had today was maybe we could extend the condensed order options to smaller orders to keep product and shipping costs down. And or deliver trade good vouchers in a different format, ie a punch card equivalent to x of each common trade good. Again just brainstorming to try and be helpful not political or depressing.

Agreed. A proposal from last year that Jeff had said would be seriously considered was having 10X or similar trade good tokens (or vouchers). Wouldn't it be nice for both TD and for us to just get 5 tokens that say 10X alchemist parchments when we transmute for 50 of them? It would be equally as nice to ship a transmute for a legendary by only sending 15-20 tokens (rather than 120+.).

Personally, I wouldn't care if the multiplier tokens were similar at all to the current ones. It could be a piece of wood with writing in sharpie for all I care. If there is concern over fakes - old tokens could be recycled stripping the print off them (if possible) and a uniquely numbered and imaged hologram sticker could be put on top of the old tokens (or just slap this on existing trade goods, it doesn't need to be perfect.)

Fred