Fred K wrote:
Matthew Hayward wrote: Doubtful - in fact tokens may get cheaper (it has happened before - 10 packs used to be $10), addition of dragon orbs made tokens “cheaper” (or at least you get more for the same price), adding an option to get 2 more PyPs in exchange for the onyx c/ic/r set made tokens “cheaper” in the same way.
TD would know it is time to raise prices when 8k auctions are routinely selling out their pieces for 10k or more (or one can see that the value of their components is up there). Another sign would be that they run out of tokens much sooner than expected.
Raising prices when that is not the case seems likely to reduce demand to me.
In any case - if td is seeing their customer numbers rise and their token sales increase they may have no reason to even contemplate it.
It's faulty logic to assume that if demand were higher that auctions would generate $10K+.
It may be. But your comment is a complete non sequitur.
My statement was:
( IF: (Auctions of 8k order items or their secondary market valuations) > $10,000
THEN: TD would have strong evidence they should raise prices. )
AND
( IF: Demand increased to the point of rapid token stock outs
THEN: TD would have strong evidence they should raise prices )
Your statement is that: It is faulty logic to assume that:
IF: Demand were higher than it is now.
THEN: (Auctions of 8k order items or their secondary market valuations) > $10,000
These two statements have nothing to do with one another, in a logical sense. The can both be true, or both be false, or either can be true and the other false independently of one another.
If anything, the vast increase in the number of auctions is proof the demand is there.
I pointed this out elsewhere, but this "vast increase in the number of auctions" you refer to doesn't demonstrate anything substantial about token demand, because they are simply displacing prior methods of selling to the secondary market.
It used to be, say 4+ years ago, that various token resellers would offer various kinds of fixed price sales of URs, maybe Teeth and stuff, and then make orders. For over 10 years this was how UR demand and supply met on the forums. Then over a few years 2-3 of the main people who did that stopped, and also auctions were introduced.
Now auctions run more than they did when they started.
However it's not even clear to me there have been more 2019 PyPs sold in the forums than there were in say, 2015, when there were exactly zero 8k auctions.
9 years without a price increase is a lot.
9 years without a price change is a lot. In the last 9 years 3 additional incentives have been added to the 8k orders (Dragon Orbs, +2 PyPs if you skip the Onyx Set, Patron Pins and access).
I'm not saying prices won't/can't go up. I'm saying that if you insist prices have to go up soon, I'm not sure what you could possibly be basing that on, when the only historical data points we have are of TD increasing the contents of 8k orders.
Even with improve manufacturing capabilities reducing the cost to build, other costs are relatively flat such as raw materials and international shipping. The average annual increase in costs to manufacture in China (mainly due to improving wages there) over the past 3 years (without adjusting for inflation) is 5% per year (it was flat for a while before that). Without tariffs, the cost of the average manufacturer in China has gone up in 2019 by as much as 10% (tariffs impact an entire supply chain so even exempted industries are hit in other ways). Assuming TD has a contract with their supplier at a locked in rate - after that expires, they'll have to deal with the new rates (I'd be surprised if TD was able to secure more than a 1 or 2 year contract with fixed pricing terms).
Have you considered the possibility that TDs cost on these tokens might be like, 8 cents per token? And if that's so, all the increases you mention above would only push the cost per token up to 9 or 10 cents per token plus whatever tariff impact you imagine?
Have you also considered that by TD offering "super condensed" order they have radically reduced their costs on some 8k orders to a small percentage of what they were a few years ago? (Non-condensed ~10,000 tokens, condensed ~3,000 tokens, Super Condensed ~600 tokens)
In other words: it's possible all the concerns above about 5%-10% increase in manufacturing costs and tariffs are completely trivial to TDs operating expenses, and would be dwarfed by something like a hypothetical decision by TD to offer Chipotle catered lunch for their staff on Fridays.
I'm not saying the costs of tokens necessarily are trivial: TD hasn't shared their costs with us. But given that poker chips retail for around 10 cents each its plausible that a ~10% change in TDs cost of tokens is not relevant to TDs operating expenses.
I would expect to see costs go up. If anything, the best place to start is with the $8K deals - raising that to promote more people getting the $250 deals individually (increasing TD's margins). I'd work my way down to the smallest orders (i.e. newest players) last to help drive growth.
I'll make you a bet, for one 2021 PyP selection:
Matt pays Fred if: TD increases the per-pack cost of tokens in the 2020, or 2021 token season, or if the 8k orders are discontinued and replaced by a higher price point, or if 8k orders start including fewer than 960 token 10 packs.
Fred pays Matt if: TD offers additional, substantial incentives Fred agrees are worth more than $50, or which are shown to sell in auction for more than $50, to 8k orders or preorders in the 2020 or 2021 token season, which are either entirely new or substantial upgrades from prior offerings.
No one pays if both things happen or neither happens.
Loser pays shipping.
Deal?