TOPIC: Really Great Vaccine News

www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html

This is really awesome news. In a test of about 15,000 people (plus a control group of 15,000) Moderna found that their new Coronavirus vaccine was over 90% effective and has minimal side effects. Unlike the Pfizer vaccine it also doesn't need to be stored at -75 degrees, and it lasts a month in a fridge. That means that we don't need to build out new infrastructure to distribute it the way we'd have to with Pfizer's.

I know all of this has to be taken with a grain of salt, nothing happens till it happens, but Dr. Fauci says that high risk individuals may start getting the vaccine in late December. Everyone else will be April, May, June, July.

I'm extremely excited about this news. Don't know that it'll be in time for Origins, but if all goes well cons later in the year might actually happen. Who knows, if they decide there's enough of a vaccinated presence maybe even Origins can happen.

Josh M. wrote: www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html

This is really awesome news. In a test of about 30,000 people (plus a control group of 30,000) Moderna found that their new Coronavirus vaccine was over 90% effective and has minimal side effects. Unlike the Pfizer vaccine it also doesn't need to be stored at -75 degrees, and it lasts a month in a fridge. That means that we don't need to build out new infrastructure to distribute it the way we'd have to with Pfizer's.

I know all of this has to be taken with a grain of salt, nothing happens till it happens, but Dr. Fauci says that high risk individuals may start getting the vaccine in late December. Everyone else will be April, May, June, July.

I'm extremely excited about this news. Don't know that it'll be in time for Origins, but if all goes well cons later in the year might actually happen. Who knows, if they decide there's enough of a vaccinated presence maybe even Origins can happen.

Thanks for the update on the COVID front. There are still a lot of other factors that will determine when Cons open back up. A great vaccine won't help much if 50% of the population won't take it. Also, there are some legal liability issues that have not been settled. Fingers crossed for the summer!

Yeah, it's definitely not a done deal, but it's a very positive step. Having a good vaccine available doesn't mean everything can go back to normal immediately, but nothing can go back to normal until we have a good vaccine.

I've already got my GENCON hotel room for next year, and am very hopeful it will happen.

I view sports as a cue that game cons can happen.

When there are zero restrictions on how people interact at sports events and there are trivial to zero requirements of participants, then anything more than a local game convention could feasibly happen.

Part of this is due to how much more interactive game cons are versus attending sports events where sports events can easily eject participants without affecting the product. But, an important reason for this is that sports have tons of money to deal with liability/insurance/security/logistics, where game conventions have no extra money for glass shields, PPE, getting sued, etc.

Now, I imagine local cons might try under the theory of few travelers and how restrictions are completely uneven across the country. I can't speak to most cons outside my region, but maybe a Gamehole Con equivalent in the Spring would happen where an Origins would never happen until you had Ohio State sports events with zero restrictions.

But, then, how I think the world should work seems to run into how it's not how it works.

Both the Pfizer and Moderna results have been very positive (Moderna over 95% effective). That is great news.

With that said, 2021 won't be a radical change from 2020. I wish that wasn't the case but it almost certainly will be.

The current vaccine is only for adults. There is no children's vaccine yet. The children's vaccine requires using results from the adult data for development. Hopefully, we can get to phase 2 trials on children by April meaning approval of a kid's vaccine by late 2021.

In terms of rolling out a vaccine - first responders get priority. Logistically, if everything is approved by end of this year, first responders globally can get vaccinated by April. After that, everyone else can start getting vaccinated. The vaccines require 2 shots over 28 days and have difficult storage requirements (kept at below -94F.) Moderna and Pfizer each can only produce approximately enough for 1B people in 2021 (leaving a shortfall of more than half the world's population for 2021.)

As Jeff said, getting people to take the vaccine is critical. We need 80% of the population to take it before it will be effective. Unfortunately, too many people are skeptical of science and medicine and those headwinds will be difficult to overcome.

I can't envision a scenario where GenCon can be done safely in person 2021 even if kids are banned from attending.

Yes, sports are allowing fans. That isn't evidence of things getting better - it is actually part of the problem as to how it is getting worse. The US is in the grips of the worst Covid has ever been here because of complacency and desire to return to normal. You can't socially distance at a gaming table. Even wearing masks, 3-4 hours with the same people who aren't part of your household is a risky behavior during the epidemic.

I want conventions and in-person gaming again myself but we can't do it without making things worse.

For now, we can all help by following the right behaviors and helping others to do the same. When the vaccines are FDA approved, we should all get vaccinated and strongly encourage everyone we know to do the same. Until then, we get good at virtual events and use this as an opportunity to meet distant people virtually that we'd probably never meet in person.

In 1606, Shakespeare had to close the Globe Theater and remain in isolation due to the Plague. He wrote King Lear, MacBeth, and Antony and Cleopatra.

Hopefully, we'll come out of the other end of this with a lot of new ideas and creativity to make 2022 an amazing year.

Fred

Fred K wrote: Both the Pfizer and Moderna results have been very positive (Moderna over 95% effective). That is great news.

With that said, 2021 won't be a radical change from 2020. I wish that wasn't the case but it almost certainly will be.

The current vaccine is only for adults. There is no children's vaccine yet. The children's vaccine requires using results from the adult data for development. Hopefully, we can get to phase 2 trials on children by April meaning approval of a kid's vaccine by late 2021.

In terms of rolling out a vaccine - first responders get priority. Logistically, if everything is approved by end of this year, first responders globally can get vaccinated by April. After that, everyone else can start getting vaccinated. The vaccines require 2 shots over 28 days and have difficult storage requirements (kept at below -94F.) Moderna and Pfizer each can only produce approximately enough for 1B people in 2021 (leaving a shortfall of more than half the world's population for 2021.)

As Jeff said, getting people to take the vaccine is critical. We need 80% of the population to take it before it will be effective. Unfortunately, too many people are skeptical of science and medicine and those headwinds will be difficult to overcome.

I can't envision a scenario where GenCon can be done safely in person 2021 even if kids are banned from attending.

Yes, sports are allowing fans. That isn't evidence of things getting better - it is actually part of the problem as to how it is getting worse. The US is in the grips of the worst Covid has ever been here because of complacency and desire to return to normal. You can't socially distance at a gaming table. Even wearing masks, 3-4 hours with the same people who aren't part of your household is a risky behavior during the epidemic.

I want conventions and in-person gaming again myself but we can't do it without making things worse.

For now, we can all help by following the right behaviors and helping others to do the same. When the vaccines are FDA approved, we should all get vaccinated and strongly encourage everyone we know to do the same. Until then, we get good at virtual events and use this as an opportunity to meet distant people virtually that we'd probably never meet in person.

In 1606, Shakespeare had to close the Globe Theater and remain in isolation due to the Plague. He wrote King Lear, MacBeth, and Antony and Cleopatra.

Hopefully, we'll come out of the other end of this with a lot of new ideas and creativity to make 2022 an amazing year.

Fred

The Moderna vaccine doesn't have the same storage requirements as Pfizer. It will last 6 months in a regular freezer and 7 days in a refrigerator. That will make distribution a lot easier. I think it's too soon to write off 2021, let's see how things play out.

I really am hoping for better progress but also believe it is important for people to not become complacent due to fatigue. If we keep thinking it will turn the corner any minute, it is more likely we'll get lax and end up here again.

You are right on Moderna's storage temperature (-20 rather than -94). It won't pose as big a storage problem as Pfizer. The bigger issue is production capacity and adoption. Hopefully, Biden will use the defense production act to force a larger production capacity (and pay the companies fairly for doing so.) As for adoption, I am losing some hope there - too many people won't even wear masks. The alternative to adoption from that segment would be to block their access to most everything. Didn't take the vaccine? Sorry, no public school, no public services, no entry into public places or commercial locations. I just don't know if congress would pass something like that.

Fred

According to Moderna's press release :
Shipping & Long-term Storage: For shipping and longer-term storage, Moderna expects that mRNA-1273 will be maintained at -20°C (-4°F), equal to most home or medical freezer temperatures, for up to 6 months. Using standard freezer temperatures of -20°C (range of -25° to -15°C or -13° to 5°F) is an easier and more established method of distribution and storage than deep freezing and most pharmaceutical distribution companies have the capability to store and ship products at -20°C (-4°F) worldwide.

Refrigeration Storage: After thawing, to facilitate storage at points of administration, Moderna expects that mRNA-1273 will remain stable at standard refrigerated conditions of 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F) for up to 30 days within the 6-month shelf life. The stability at refrigerated conditions allows for storage at most pharmacies, hospitals, or physicians’ offices.

Room Temperature for Vaccination: Once the vaccine is removed from the refrigerator for administration, it can be kept at room temperature conditions for up to 12 hours.

Fred K wrote: Both the Pfizer and Moderna results have been very positive (Moderna over 95% effective). That is great news.

With that said, 2021 won't be a radical change from 2020. I wish that wasn't the case but it almost certainly will be.

The current vaccine is only for adults. There is no children's vaccine yet. The children's vaccine requires using results from the adult data for development. Hopefully, we can get to phase 2 trials on children by April meaning approval of a kid's vaccine by late 2021.

In terms of rolling out a vaccine - first responders get priority. Logistically, if everything is approved by end of this year, first responders globally can get vaccinated by April. After that, everyone else can start getting vaccinated. The vaccines require 2 shots over 28 days and have difficult storage requirements (kept at below -94F.) Moderna and Pfizer each can only produce approximately enough for 1B people in 2021 (leaving a shortfall of more than half the world's population for 2021.)

As Jeff said, getting people to take the vaccine is critical. We need 80% of the population to take it before it will be effective. Unfortunately, too many people are skeptical of science and medicine and those headwinds will be difficult to overcome.

I can't envision a scenario where GenCon can be done safely in person 2021 even if kids are banned from attending.

Yes, sports are allowing fans. That isn't evidence of things getting better - it is actually part of the problem as to how it is getting worse. The US is in the grips of the worst Covid has ever been here because of complacency and desire to return to normal. You can't socially distance at a gaming table. Even wearing masks, 3-4 hours with the same people who aren't part of your household is a risky behavior during the epidemic.

I want conventions and in-person gaming again myself but we can't do it without making things worse.

For now, we can all help by following the right behaviors and helping others to do the same. When the vaccines are FDA approved, we should all get vaccinated and strongly encourage everyone we know to do the same. Until then, we get good at virtual events and use this as an opportunity to meet distant people virtually that we'd probably never meet in person.

In 1606, Shakespeare had to close the Globe Theater and remain in isolation due to the Plague. He wrote King Lear, MacBeth, and Antony and Cleopatra.

Hopefully, we'll come out of the other end of this with a lot of new ideas and creativity to make 2022 an amazing year.

Fred

I find myself having to agree with all of your major points here. If any major cons happen in 2021, I'll, quite frankly, be shocked.

Same here. After nine months of terrorizing folks to stay inside, I can't imagine anything happening in 2021. My wife has said she will not go to any con, or any concert (which has been her true love) for at least another full year. I think 2021 will be a continuation of 2020. Sucks, but I think thats the world the science folks have wrought.

I think liability is the key point. Ok we have a vaccine ready to go by year end and maybe even largely distributed by next summer, let's even assume you can find a con willing to risk running at reduced capacity. What polition will risk giving the ok to large gatherings, and what company will risk insuring them. I hope Im wrong but with Biden Harris coming in I cant see any cons happening before 2022 at the earliest.