TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

Fred K wrote: I'm glad Jeff was direct about what the reality was in the mix of monster bits in treasure. Really, any change now would be unfair to the people who did a ton of runs at Origins to finish the set out.

With that said, the secondary market for the bead and golden fleece doesn't seem to reflect this problem. Monster bits normally sell at $10-$15 per bit. This transmute requires 18 bits (correct me if I'm wrong) plus a bead of firehold (say that is $1 each). A fully transmuted bead is currently running $175 to $200 - less than if you bought the monster bits individually and did the transmute (likely costing $225-$250 per). It's even less than paying for the runs at max treasure and doing the transmute (assuming 2 bits per run = 9 runs = $400+ (yes, you do get other stuff as well as just enjoying the game)). The general community can just buy a fully transmuted bead for far less effort and expense than making it themselves.

I did 4 golden fleece transmutes at Origins and am kicking myself a bit for it. Using this same set of metrics, golden fleece should cost in excess of $100 each but I've never seen it higher than $75.

The secondary market will likely make up problems in scarcity over the next 1-2 years since so many people did more than 1 bead with plans to sell them. A few years from now, they may jump up quite a bit in price but for players today, this helps offset the scarcity problem.

Fred

I disagree with you assessment that monster bits normally sell at $10-$15. I agree they sometimes do but that is not the norm in my experience. They are more like $7 to $10 and sometimes less.

Many traders offer to buy bits at $5 apiece.

The year of the scarce bits was 2013, not 2012.

GF are now listed at 65-90 (special sales notwithstanding).

Individual 2016-2018 bits are listed at 15-30 apiece

2019 bits are listed at 40 apiece.

Things are very much in flux right now. This is a volatile market to say the least.

I truly hope this error doesnt put anyone off of the game, transmuting, or trading.

The solution of adding 2019s to the 2020 mix seems at least an option, if not a great one. Something to consider for sure.

Wade Schwendemann wrote: Many traders offer to buy bits at $5 apiece.

The year of the scarce bits was 2013, not 2012.

GF are now listed at 65-90 (special sales notwithstanding).

Individual 2016-2018 bits are listed at 15-30 apiece

2019 bits are listed at 40 apiece.

Things are very much in flux right now. This is a volatile market to say the least.

I truly hope this error doesnt put anyone off of the game, transmuting, or trading.

The solution of adding 2019s to the 2020 mix seems at least an option, if not a great one. Something to consider for sure.

It would help some and hurt others. So I don't know. Whatever Jeff does or doesn't do I am fine with just want to know.

Make 2020 transmute gold or bits. That would free up 2019s to just go to beads if that is what the owner wants to do

Endgame wrote: Make 2020 transmute gold or bits. That would free up 2019s to just go to beads if that is what the owner wants to do

I agree but can we worry about 2020 transmutes later? Can we all just agree to focus on this relic recipe riddle? lol

Just to go on record, I would be against adding 2019 bits to the 2020 mix.

1. I think I am in the minority that this is a major problem, it sucks but we can at least make plans, there is still the same number of bits as last year just less due to greater number of treasure

2.inreally don't think we need a fix there is extra monster bits from previous years for fleeces answer are great community to trade what we need, it might just take till ghc or origins to have enough 2019 monster bits to makes prices affordable

Also keep in mind timing. Origins just ended. So pricing on stuff is going to be all over the place for a while. Mainly on the high side IMO. People that didn't attend and want to buy up bits and beads are going to do so and pay a premium because it's right after the con and people worry about not getting what they want. Transmorph Charms were the same way. Initial price was high and over time they've fallen. Gen Con is the biggest TD Con so I'd wait to see how things shake out there.

Fred K wrote: I'm glad Jeff was direct about what the reality was in the mix of monster bits in treasure. Really, any change now would be unfair to the people who did a ton of runs at Origins to finish the set out.

With that said, the secondary market for the bead and golden fleece doesn't seem to reflect this problem. Monster bits normally sell at $10-$15 per bit. This transmute requires 18 bits (correct me if I'm wrong) plus a bead of firehold (say that is $1 each). A fully transmuted bead is currently running $175 to $200 - less than if you bought the monster bits individually and did the transmute (likely costing $225-$250 per). It's even less than paying for the runs at max treasure and doing the transmute (assuming 2 bits per run = 9 runs = $400+ (yes, you do get other stuff as well as just enjoying the game)). The general community can just buy a fully transmuted bead for far less effort and expense than making it themselves.

I did 4 golden fleece transmutes at Origins and am kicking myself a bit for it. Using this same set of metrics, golden fleece should cost in excess of $100 each but I've never seen it higher than $75.

The secondary market will likely make up problems in scarcity over the next 1-2 years since so many people did more than 1 bead with plans to sell them. A few years from now, they may jump up quite a bit in price but for players today, this helps offset the scarcity problem.

Fred

10 to 15? Who is paying $15 for monster bits? Ive always had trouble getting even $7 per monster bit. If i had a large surplus i had to go down to $5 to sell them. Obviously, this doesnt apply to drastic shortages, which may be the case for 2019.

Endgame wrote: Make 2020 transmute gold or bits. That would free up 2019s to just go to beads if that is what the owner wants to do

I dont think this will have much impact on the beads. Someone using bits on non-bead transmutes probably isnt going to switch to gp. What the gp option WOULD do is allow players who used all their bits on beads to make some 2020 transmutes as well.

No offense, but all the people who are suggesting “don’t worry, just buy more tickets” or “there will be plenty for sale later” are, IMO, totally missing the point, and don’t seem to understand why this situation is so upsetting to some people.

The problem isn’t that people are afraid they won’t be able to get a Bead.

jedibcg wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: This is also not the first time something like this has happened - a few years back - maybe 2015? There was an announced proposed mix. It had monster bits at some percentage.

Then, at the cons according to our tracking spreadheets, it seems the monster bit percentage was considerably lower (I'm talking like a 10% difference).

I think it's wise to temper any expectations about what the mix should be.

i will look but i don’t recall that. nice that we still have the data to look.

I don't have a spreadsheet that goes back further that 2016 so I don't we were tracking back in 2015. That said I compared the data we have for all the cons and within each season the difference for Monster Bits between cons NEVER varies more than 5% (I think it was 3% but I don't have them up any more). Just wanted to clear that up. Though I may have misunderstood what you were saying.

I got the year wrong - this is what I was referring to:

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=53&id=234348#234348

In 2016 it was proposed (announced?) that the monster bit percentage would be 35%

Subsequently it was changed to 25% or so and we found out at Gen Con by tracking or discussion with volunteers who made the mix.

Some people, self included, made plans, traded tokens, bought and sole treasure pulls, etc. on the premise of 35% monster bits.

This is why I was saying I think it’s wise to take everything re: the mix with a grain of salt and see what it actually is at the event.