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TOPIC: Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration

Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #37

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I imagine there will be two pretty different camps in 2026 regarding the recipes. Many of those that held onto AoTF tokens in anticipation of the transmute will likely be in favor of not having an alternate recipe that doesn't require an AoTF.


Of course. It won't be any different than when the AoTF and CoA were announced. But I think the odds are NOT in their favor. The "AoTF Required" camp will be unable to rely upon precedent to make their case, and I seriously doubt they will be any more successful than the "HoP Required" camp was. History is not on their side. And having to buy three or four PYPs to make up for the missing AoTF will result in more sales, so that's good for Jeff. Locking out newbies from the new Super TE only protects speculators, and doesn't do TD or anybody else any good.

Disclosure: I have enough AoTFs to make as many as I want, but I'm fine if they end up being optional. CoA and this year's bard instrument have me convinced it's going to work out. It will be fewer future TEs I have to get for the alternate recipe, assuming there is one. (I put the odds at greater than 90%, but whatever.)


Well, I think both sides will have an argument to make. The CoA was inevitably going to have an alternate recipe, because one of the motives for making it was giving those that weren't able to get an HoP the opportunity to get the equivalent of one. The CoA was announced well after the HoP was available for ordering, while the new Transmute was announced while the AoTF was still available for PYPs. It's not that different from the 7 year Rod and Tooth cycles. The first Rod token wasn't reprinted for those that weren't around to get it when it was available.

Just a preview of discussions to come. :)

That is barely true. Jeff only said there may be a TE transmute involving the AoTF when it was in first avaiable. The confirmation that it would definitely be used came when there was what maybe 5 weeks left to order it as a PYP. That post is from 2 years and 4 months ago. 2015 tokens would have still available till 9/30(I confirmed this date). I don’t know the exact date of that post.


That's true, but the fact remains that there was still an opportunity to order AoTFs as PYPs when the confirmation came. And like you said, the possibility was floated out there long before that.

I still think what Jeff does in 2026 will largely depend on how many of the new Legendary Transmute he wants out there. No alternate recipe would limit it to the amount of AoTF in circulation (Jeff might have a good idea how many that is), an alternate recipe would of course increase that amount. Plus, I'm sure Jeff will be intensely lobbied by both sides. He might be dreading dealing with this debate in 2026. ;)

It does not adress any new players that we will pick up in the 10 years after the post when it comes time for this token. i really cannot see Jeff alienating those players, but time will tell (if TD is still around then).
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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #38

jedibcg wrote: It does not adress any new players that we will pick up in the 10 years after the post when it comes time for this token. i really cannot see Jeff alienating those players, but time will tell (if TD is still around then).


Agreed on all counts. There was a comment that CoA needed a second recipe because there so many new players in 2015 who weren't around 7 or 8 years prior when the HoP was PYP. The same will be even truer (by numbers if not percentages) in 2026, if growth at the satellites is any indication, when it will have been 11 years since AoTF was first printed.

To Harlax's point - I just don't like seeing newbies get all angsty about missing out on the AoTF, and panic themselves into paying more than they have to under what may be a flawed assumption. AoTF and HoP will never be literally reprinted, per Jeff, but I think odds are very good that AoTF will be essentially reprinted, as the HoP was, at least from a recipe perspective. There's something to be said for getting an AoTF at today's prices, because +4 TC is not to be sneezed at. But not out of FOMO. "It is a characteristic of wisdom not to do desperate things." --Henry David Thoreau

But I could be wrong.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #39

You also have people buying and holding onto AoTF for 10 years, many of whom have CoA and aren't getting any benefit from it for those 10 years.

I agree assuming there won't be an alternate recipe is a risk, but assuming there will be one is also a risk. It's a risk either way until Jeff announces one way or another. I'm planning on holding onto ours just in case.

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #40

sorry i fail to see any risk if you have an aotf and assume there won’t be alt recipe? or what risk there is for those same folks if there an alt. no one is saying there won’t be a recipe that uses them. And very likely it will be WAY ‘cheaper’ than an alt (assuming you got them as PYP or PYP prices).
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #41

jedibcg wrote: sorry i fail to see any risk if you have an aotf and assume there won’t be alt recipe? or what risk there is for those same folks if there an alt. no one is saying there won’t be a recipe that uses them. And very likely it will be WAY ‘cheaper’ than an alt (assuming you got them as PYP or PYP prices).


The risk is holding onto it for 10 years and passing up selling it for a big profit now and having years to have the money work for you. It's an opportunity cost risk. Plenty of people have said they sold theirs for the money now, assuming they would have an alternate recipe in 2026. That's mostly if you already have a HoP or CoA, otherwise you're benefiting from the AoTF every run.

If you don't have one, the risk is bigger of course, since you're probably paying $300 or more and then holding onto it for 7 years.

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #42

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: sorry i fail to see any risk if you have an aotf and assume there won’t be alt recipe? or what risk there is for those same folks if there an alt. no one is saying there won’t be a recipe that uses them. And very likely it will be WAY ‘cheaper’ than an alt (assuming you got them as PYP or PYP prices).


The risk is holding onto it for 10 years and passing up selling it for a big profit now and having years to have the money work for you. It's an opportunity cost risk. Plenty of people have said they sold theirs for the money now, assuming they would have an alternate recipe in 2026. That's mostly if you already have a HoP or CoA, otherwise you're benefiting from the AoTF every run.

If you don't have one, the risk is bigger of course, since you're probably paying $300 or more and then holding onto it for 7 years.

plenty of people sold saying they believe there would be alt, really? please provide. i have seen folks saying they sold it, yes, but not because they believe there will be an alt. Not saying you are wrong, just asking you to provide data with a statement like that. Those also would NOT be the people that risk anything HAVING an AoTF and there being an alt.
Anyone holding onto one or several expecting to sell them in 10 is risking them going up the same as any other token for 10 years with expectancy of it selling it for more. That 10 year risk is always there. Granted how much it MAY go up is depentant on LOTS of factors.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Last edit: by jedibcg.

Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #43

jedibcg wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: sorry i fail to see any risk if you have an aotf and assume there won’t be alt recipe? or what risk there is for those same folks if there an alt. no one is saying there won’t be a recipe that uses them. And very likely it will be WAY ‘cheaper’ than an alt (assuming you got them as PYP or PYP prices).


The risk is holding onto it for 10 years and passing up selling it for a big profit now and having years to have the money work for you. It's an opportunity cost risk. Plenty of people have said they sold theirs for the money now, assuming they would have an alternate recipe in 2026. That's mostly if you already have a HoP or CoA, otherwise you're benefiting from the AoTF every run.

If you don't have one, the risk is bigger of course, since you're probably paying $300 or more and then holding onto it for 7 years.

plenty of people sold saying they believe there would be alt, really? please provide. i have seen folks saying they sold it, yes, but not because they believe there will be an alt. Not saying you are wrong, just asking you to provide data with a statement like that. Those also would NOT be the people that risk anything HAVING an AoTF and there being an alt.
Anyone holding onto one or several expecting to sell them in 10 is risking them going up the same as any other token for 10 years with expectancy of it selling it for more. That 10 year risk is always there. Granted how much it MAY go up is depentant on LOTS of factors.


I seem to recall the same people selling theirs were the same people assuming there would be an alternate recipe or reprint if AoTF. I don't have links though, so I'm OK with just saying that some people have chosen to sell their AoTF rather than hold them for the transmute.

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #44

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: sorry i fail to see any risk if you have an aotf and assume there won’t be alt recipe? or what risk there is for those same folks if there an alt. no one is saying there won’t be a recipe that uses them. And very likely it will be WAY ‘cheaper’ than an alt (assuming you got them as PYP or PYP prices).


The risk is holding onto it for 10 years and passing up selling it for a big profit now and having years to have the money work for you. It's an opportunity cost risk. Plenty of people have said they sold theirs for the money now, assuming they would have an alternate recipe in 2026. That's mostly if you already have a HoP or CoA, otherwise you're benefiting from the AoTF every run.

If you don't have one, the risk is bigger of course, since you're probably paying $300 or more and then holding onto it for 7 years.

plenty of people sold saying they believe there would be alt, really? please provide. i have seen folks saying they sold it, yes, but not because they believe there will be an alt. Not saying you are wrong, just asking you to provide data with a statement like that. Those also would NOT be the people that risk anything HAVING an AoTF and there being an alt.
Anyone holding onto one or several expecting to sell them in 10 is risking them going up the same as any other token for 10 years with expectancy of it selling it for more. That 10 year risk is always there. Granted how much it MAY go up is depentant on LOTS of factors.


I seem to recall the same people selling theirs were the same people assuming there would be an alternate recipe or reprint if AoTF. I don't have links though, so I'm OK with just saying that some people have chosen to sell their AoTF rather than hold them for the transmute.


That statement is absolutely irrefutable
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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #45

to my knowledge this the first real discussion of an alt recipe. Not saying there weren’t others, just none that i recall. at least in this thread the only person i saw talking selling was James and he doesn’t mention an alt that i saw. Brad believes there should be an alt and says he has kept his. i believe there should be an alt and kept mine. granted a fair number of folks were at pax this weekend and may not chimed in.
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Last edit: by jedibcg.

Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #46

jedibcg wrote: to my knowledge this the first real discussion of an alt recipe. Not saying there weren’t others, just none that i recall.


I recall at least one other, I think back when the discussion of reprinting the AoTF was also going on. Probably not as in-depth as this one though. And this discussion is probably just scratching the surface. :)

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #47

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote: to my knowledge this the first real discussion of an alt recipe. Not saying there weren’t others, just none that i recall.


I recall at least one other, I think back when the discussion of reprinting the AoTF was also going on. Probably not as in-depth as this one though. And this discussion is probably just scratching the surface. :)

on that last statement we can agree.
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Best Possible Treasure Enhancer Configuration 4 years 6 days ago #48

Mike Steele wrote: I still think what Jeff does in 2026 will largely depend on how many of the new Legendary Transmute he wants out there. No alternate recipe would limit it to the amount of AoTF in circulation (Jeff might have a good idea how many that is), an alternate recipe would of course increase that amount. Plus, I'm sure Jeff will be intensely lobbied by both sides. He might be dreading dealing with this debate in 2026. ;)


Jeff is pretty smart. I predict he retires the week after GenCon 2026 and makes someone else deal with this headache.

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