TOPIC: Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins

Bob Chasan wrote: so all six monster but will be in the treasure boxes and trash bags at origins

trash bags...?

I guess those are the 50 pull bags that are made last minute at the end of the con?

Adam Guay wrote: I guess those are the 50 pull bags that are made last minute at the end of the con?

I think they are also made ahead of time and during the con.

The ones made ahead of time have always turned out good and with a nice mix.....the ones made later that I have pulled have been very full of uncommons and light on monster bits.

Druegar wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote: so all six monster but will be in the treasure boxes and trash bags at origins

trash bags...?

Ya know it's that darn talk to text. I said Treasure bags but apparently it heard Trash Bags. Actually my last 4-5 bags of 50 could be called trash bags.

Adam Guay wrote: The ones made ahead of time have always turned out good and with a nice mix.....the ones made later that I have pulled have been very full of uncommons and light on monster bits.

My end of PAX bags were awesome.

Adam Guay wrote: The ones made ahead of time have always turned out good and with a nice mix.....the ones made later that I have pulled have been very full of uncommons and light on monster bits.

I’m not a fan of the 50 bags,
At GC there is not much choice,
But at the other cons,
It’s a lot easier to pull em as
There is not a ton of people
Waiting on the box.

The Falcon wrote: I’m not a fan of the 50 bags,

Because you enjoy the act
of fishing them from the box
or it's another reason
you think it stinks like gym socks?

I know some folks round here might think
the fifty bags of treasure stink
because the one or two they pulled
were full of stuff that won't be sold.

But I am here to tell you now
that bags and boxes do not row.
Two rivers from the same lake grows
the source of all your treasure flows.

From box or bag, it matters not
the odds are same, one is not "hot".
Fear not, your luck is not leaky
random will, at times, be streaky .

I just like the bags because my wife opens them on the drive home so we have something to chat about in the car.

That said I too have noticed that the predawn bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con. Might be subjective but that's how it seems.

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

Druegar wrote:

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

I know LOGICALLY it’s the same but 5 bags and the best token is a rare dragonward amulet, not even a tier one trade token. So, it can seem seem less than equal.
I’m not complaining because I really do appreciate the convenience of the bags and I know eventually it will even out.

Bob Chasan wrote: 5 bags and the best token is a rare dragonward amulet, not even a tier one trade token. So, it can seem seem less than equal.

So if I were to draw 250 tokens from the box and the best I got was a Dragonward Amulet, would that mean the box has worse odds than bags? Neither 5 nor 250 is a statistically significant sample size.