TOPIC: Bead of the Lucky Traveler at Origins

Wade Schwendemann wrote:

Adam Guay wrote: The ones made ahead of time have always turned out good and with a nice mix.....the ones made later that I have pulled have been very full of uncommons and light on monster bits.

My end of PAX bags were awesome.

Same here I got a relic hammer

I will always take 50s if possible, just way easier. The treasure wand is a PITA for large quantities. I trust Druegar that the distribution is the same.

Druegar wrote:

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

Thank you, I have been saying this for years.

jedibcg wrote:

Druegar wrote:

Picc wrote: I too have noticed that the {predrawn} bags seem to be more evenly distributed then those generated during the con.

What is your sample size?

I realize some folks may think I'm biased, but I am not kidding when I say your odds of pulling the "good stuff" from a bag or the box are exactly same. How do I know this? Because they come the Exact. Same. Source! Pulling one or two "crappy" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "good". And conversely, pulling one or two "awesome" bags is not evidence that the bags have less of a chance of being "crappy". I totally get that it might look that way to the bag holder, but if you examine the outcomes of both over time, the odds are the same.

Honestly, I don't care if you draw from the box or get a bag. I'm merely trying to encourage rational thinking. I'm crazy for trying, I know, but I gotta try.

Thank you, I have been saying this for years.

100% Granted I haven't seen enough bags to draw a representory sample.

That said, I would speculate that the bags made in carbondale probably come out of a large subset of treasure mix. Those made at the con would be necessity come from mix that is at the lease already devided into buckets, and at worst might have already been drawn from in treasure generators just because its what's on hand.

If it's the prior, that initial subdivision might already affect the variance. Though again granted not in a meaningful or predictable way.

If it's the latter, the odds would definitely be different based on what had or hadn't already come out of the generators. Again not predictable.

Over all I agree your odds are the same wherever you draw from (relative the entire treasure pool). However it still feels like you could have hot or cold bags/buckets relative a sub set.

IMO if your really trying to maximize your odds and you head about how hot sub source of treasure was it would be best to avoid it as (assuming even distribution) that source has already paid out. It's kind of like basic +- face card counting in blackjack, what's come out of a source thus far tells you something about what's likely to be left in it.

i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.

I call shenanigans. She wasn't your wife when she drew that token, correct?

jedibcg wrote:

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: i prefer the bags...because I dont open them right away. then when I am missing TD I open a bag. i try to spread them out between cons to help with the no con blues

I have seen them all done. I can tell you. everything is random....except the one rogue box my wife drew out of on the GT run. That had just one token in it for room 7.

I call shenanigans. She wasn't your wife when she drew that token, correct?

if I dont mention her as wife in any context now, that is bad news for me

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: if I dont mention her as wife in any context now, that is bad news for me

lol fair enough.

This year will be interesting with the 20 bags. I am not certain if we will crack them right away or I will just wait till I get them home and do so. Probably need to crack them right away to get the Monster Bits to make the Lucky Traveler Beads. There I attempted to bring us back.

I will always pull from the treasure boxes with the wand. Just seems more old school fun to me. And my kids will always pull from the treasure boxes. They love it. And once or twice I think they got 2 tokens stuck on the wand and the guy monitoring the boxes let them have both tokens. They thought that was awesome, two-for-the-price-of-one

I have found the box and the bags to be about the same.
I have had a smaller sample size of bags compared to normal pulls.
I’m looking forward to the 20 bags to, just for speed and convenience in the epilogue room

Will there still be 50 count bags available?

The plan is for both 20 and 50 bags to be available.

"Picc” wrote: ...that initial subdivision might already affect the variance.

It does. If there’s only one legendary, one subset has it and the other doesn’t. If you want the Hammer, draw from the subset that has it. But...

Though again granted not in a meaningful or predictable way.

...there’s no way of knowing where it is. The people who might know aren’t talking.

If it's the latter, the odds would definitely be different based on what had or hadn't already come out of the generators. Again not predictable.

You might know which subset DID have it, if you’re keeping track of all the draws. Retroactive predictions are 100% accurate.

(Shelly found an Aren’s in a 50-bag at Origins.)