TOPIC: 2020 Transmute Recipes, From the QTR

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I think that the increase in quantities of trade item tokens was a direct result of the drop in value of so many of the trade item and monster tokens, indicating a glut of them on the market.

I think your right Mike. But I don't think the increases were large enough. I don't see prices of trade goods going anywhere but down, except for maybe GP. I'm betting there will still be a ton of trade goods out on the market after this year, especially since all of the Legendaries are again class specific. In addition to next year's class Legendaries it would also be nice to see one or two general ones.

Rob, I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if quantities go up again in recipes next year, if these changes don't result in less of a glut.

If you guys really feel this way, I recommend shorting your trade goods. Sell them now for less than auction prices, put the money aside, and buy the goods for even less money in a year or two.

I really, really don’t want to see quantities go up again- not all of us are sitting on 100s of trade goods.

I don't sell my TG's. I hang on to them for transmutes. As for quantities in recipes, if the quantities increase but the value of the TG's go down because of the supply in the market you may wind up with a wash from a financial perspective. There are folks sitting on a TON of Goods and the recipes can't suck them up fast enough. So the prices drop. And eventually that $250 order that gets you the UR and all the 10 packs just becomes a $250 UR because all the Tokens you get aren't worth crap. Which I see as a problem. I'd like to see TD run some sort of lottery, maybe for a unique Token, or UR's, or dinner with the TD directors, or...I don't know...something cool that's TD related. Each entry could be paid for by a certain number of Goods. Send them in to TD just like you do other transmutes for entries into the lottery. Then maybe right before each Con TD does a drawing. Something like this would probably bring down the supply.

Currently, I believe auctions are being driven by PYPs. There are a several slot expanders this year, the new arcanum item, etc where people are supporting nearly half the cost of an 8k auction through PYPs. Add in a dragon orb, teeth, etc, and trade goods don't have to sell for a very high price to complete the auction. Next year will probably be a similar story - second arcanum item, Platnium Nugget, final teeth, and final(?) dragon orb will prop up auction prices.

For the following year (2022) there could be a significant change to the Ultra Rares offered and Relic Recipies that could drive auctions to be trade good centric, and I think this would be the ideal way to resolve the extra trade goods issue (if there is one - the only place that silk is going for $1 or less is auctions. IF the market was super saturated, it would be that price everywhere). For example:

Issue 18 Reprints for that year - some reprints will still probably be frequently purchased (ex Mithral Gauntlets), and some less so (charm necklace). For the relics and legendaries, don't include a UR in the recipie, just use some extra trade goods, and issue some interesting usable by all legendaries. Perhaps the cloak discussed this year? (relic: 1 save of your choice is +6, the other 2 are +3. Legendary, one save +8 the other 2 +5). For this one year, also drop the requirement for a wish ring / 15k gold and add extra trade goods worth appx the same amount.

The approximate cost of the Relics / legendaries don't have to change to also end up draining trade goods.

Bob Chasan wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I think that the increase in quantities of trade item tokens was a direct result of the drop in value of so many of the trade item and monster tokens, indicating a glut of them on the market.

I think your right Mike. But I don't think the increases were large enough. I don't see prices of trade goods going anywhere but down, except for maybe GP. I'm betting there will still be a ton of trade goods out on the market after this year, especially since all of the Legendaries are again class specific. In addition to next year's class Legendaries it would also be nice to see one or two general ones.

Rob, I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if quantities go up again in recipes next year, if these changes don't result in less of a glut.

If you guys really feel this way, I recommend shorting your trade goods. Sell them now for less than auction prices, put the money aside, and buy the goods for even less money in a year or two.

I really, really don’t want to see quantities go up again- not all of us are sitting on 100s of trade goods.

I don't sell my TG's. I hang on to them for transmutes. As for quantities in recipes, if the quantities increase but the value of the TG's go down because of the supply in the market you may wind up with a wash from a financial perspective. There are folks sitting on a TON of Goods and the recipes can't suck them up fast enough. So the prices drop. And eventually that $250 order that gets you the UR and all the 10 packs just becomes a $250 UR because all the Tokens you get aren't worth crap. Which I see as a problem. I'd like to see TD run some sort of lottery, maybe for a unique Token, or UR's, or dinner with the TD directors, or...I don't know...something cool that's TD related. Each entry could be paid for by a certain number of Goods. Send them in to TD just like you do other transmutes for entries into the lottery. Then maybe right before each Con TD does a drawing. Something like this would probably bring down the supply.

I actually really like that idea.

Holy crap me too. Great idea.

Flik wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I think that the increase in quantities of trade item tokens was a direct result of the drop in value of so many of the trade item and monster tokens, indicating a glut of them on the market.

I think your right Mike. But I don't think the increases were large enough. I don't see prices of trade goods going anywhere but down, except for maybe GP. I'm betting there will still be a ton of trade goods out on the market after this year, especially since all of the Legendaries are again class specific. In addition to next year's class Legendaries it would also be nice to see one or two general ones.

Rob, I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if quantities go up again in recipes next year, if these changes don't result in less of a glut.

If you guys really feel this way, I recommend shorting your trade goods. Sell them now for less than auction prices, put the money aside, and buy the goods for even less money in a year or two.

I really, really don’t want to see quantities go up again- not all of us are sitting on 100s of trade goods.

I don't sell my TG's. I hang on to them for transmutes. As for quantities in recipes, if the quantities increase but the value of the TG's go down because of the supply in the market you may wind up with a wash from a financial perspective. There are folks sitting on a TON of Goods and the recipes can't suck them up fast enough. So the prices drop. And eventually that $250 order that gets you the UR and all the 10 packs just becomes a $250 UR because all the Tokens you get aren't worth crap. Which I see as a problem. I'd like to see TD run some sort of lottery, maybe for a unique Token, or UR's, or dinner with the TD directors, or...I don't know...something cool that's TD related. Each entry could be paid for by a certain number of Goods. Send them in to TD just like you do other transmutes for entries into the lottery. Then maybe right before each Con TD does a drawing. Something like this would probably bring down the supply.

I actually really like that idea.

Holy crap me too. Great idea.

To some extent TD used to do this with an auction, but the auction only took GP. They could peg some exchange rates for trade goods to GP to hoover up whatever is in the most abundance.

There was an auction 2 years ago at Gen Con - I was super bummed I missed it - I didn't know it was happening.

If TD were to have an online auction denominated in trade goods I'm sure it would remove lots of trade goods from the system if the items were desirable.

I'd recommend 1 year effects, dinner at Gen Con, a 1 week playtest / internship at TD HQ, stuff like that, rather than anything with permanent in game effects.

Unique experiences will always draw. It's why GTs go for more than the expected value of the "goodie bag"

I'm all for this.

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I think that the increase in quantities of trade item tokens was a direct result of the drop in value of so many of the trade item and monster tokens, indicating a glut of them on the market.

I think your right Mike. But I don't think the increases were large enough. I don't see prices of trade goods going anywhere but down, except for maybe GP. I'm betting there will still be a ton of trade goods out on the market after this year, especially since all of the Legendaries are again class specific. In addition to next year's class Legendaries it would also be nice to see one or two general ones.

Rob, I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if quantities go up again in recipes next year, if these changes don't result in less of a glut.

If you guys really feel this way, I recommend shorting your trade goods. Sell them now for less than auction prices, put the money aside, and buy the goods for even less money in a year or two.

I really, really don’t want to see quantities go up again- not all of us are sitting on 100s of trade goods.

I don't sell my TG's. I hang on to them for transmutes. As for quantities in recipes, if the quantities increase but the value of the TG's go down because of the supply in the market you may wind up with a wash from a financial perspective. There are folks sitting on a TON of Goods and the recipes can't suck them up fast enough. So the prices drop. And eventually that $250 order that gets you the UR and all the 10 packs just becomes a $250 UR because all the Tokens you get aren't worth crap. Which I see as a problem. I'd like to see TD run some sort of lottery, maybe for a unique Token, or UR's, or dinner with the TD directors, or...I don't know...something cool that's TD related. Each entry could be paid for by a certain number of Goods. Send them in to TD just like you do other transmutes for entries into the lottery. Then maybe right before each Con TD does a drawing. Something like this would probably bring down the supply.

Currently, I believe auctions are being driven by PYPs. There are a several slot expanders this year, the new arcanum item, etc where people are supporting nearly half the cost of an 8k auction through PYPs. Add in a dragon orb, teeth, etc, and trade goods don't have to sell for a very high price to complete the auction. Next year will probably be a similar story - second arcanum item, Platnium Nugget, final teeth, and final(?) dragon orb will prop up auction prices.

For the following year (2022) there could be a significant change to the Ultra Rares offered and Relic Recipies that could drive auctions to be trade good centric, and I think this would be the ideal way to resolve the extra trade goods issue (if there is one - the only place that silk is going for $1 or less is auctions. IF the market was super saturated, it would be that price everywhere). For example:

Issue 18 Reprints for that year - some reprints will still probably be frequently purchased (ex Mithral Gauntlets), and some less so (charm necklace). For the relics and legendaries, don't include a UR in the recipie, just use some extra trade goods, and issue some interesting usable by all legendaries. Perhaps the cloak discussed this year? (relic: 1 save of your choice is +6, the other 2 are +3. Legendary, one save +8 the other 2 +5). For this one year, also drop the requirement for a wish ring / 15k gold and add extra trade goods worth appx the same amount.

The approximate cost of the Relics / legendaries don't have to change to also end up draining trade goods.

Auctions will probably be really profitable in 2022 since the first tokens in the sets replacing the Teeth and Orbs will be in really high demand. I wouldn't be surprised if PYP prices then dip a bit as a result.

Mike Steele wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I think that the increase in quantities of trade item tokens was a direct result of the drop in value of so many of the trade item and monster tokens, indicating a glut of them on the market.

I think your right Mike. But I don't think the increases were large enough. I don't see prices of trade goods going anywhere but down, except for maybe GP. I'm betting there will still be a ton of trade goods out on the market after this year, especially since all of the Legendaries are again class specific. In addition to next year's class Legendaries it would also be nice to see one or two general ones.

Rob, I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if quantities go up again in recipes next year, if these changes don't result in less of a glut.

If you guys really feel this way, I recommend shorting your trade goods. Sell them now for less than auction prices, put the money aside, and buy the goods for even less money in a year or two.

I really, really don’t want to see quantities go up again- not all of us are sitting on 100s of trade goods.

I don't sell my TG's. I hang on to them for transmutes. As for quantities in recipes, if the quantities increase but the value of the TG's go down because of the supply in the market you may wind up with a wash from a financial perspective. There are folks sitting on a TON of Goods and the recipes can't suck them up fast enough. So the prices drop. And eventually that $250 order that gets you the UR and all the 10 packs just becomes a $250 UR because all the Tokens you get aren't worth crap. Which I see as a problem. I'd like to see TD run some sort of lottery, maybe for a unique Token, or UR's, or dinner with the TD directors, or...I don't know...something cool that's TD related. Each entry could be paid for by a certain number of Goods. Send them in to TD just like you do other transmutes for entries into the lottery. Then maybe right before each Con TD does a drawing. Something like this would probably bring down the supply.

Currently, I believe auctions are being driven by PYPs. There are a several slot expanders this year, the new arcanum item, etc where people are supporting nearly half the cost of an 8k auction through PYPs. Add in a dragon orb, teeth, etc, and trade goods don't have to sell for a very high price to complete the auction. Next year will probably be a similar story - second arcanum item, Platnium Nugget, final teeth, and final(?) dragon orb will prop up auction prices.

For the following year (2022) there could be a significant change to the Ultra Rares offered and Relic Recipies that could drive auctions to be trade good centric, and I think this would be the ideal way to resolve the extra trade goods issue (if there is one - the only place that silk is going for $1 or less is auctions. IF the market was super saturated, it would be that price everywhere). For example:

Issue 18 Reprints for that year - some reprints will still probably be frequently purchased (ex Mithral Gauntlets), and some less so (charm necklace). For the relics and legendaries, don't include a UR in the recipie, just use some extra trade goods, and issue some interesting usable by all legendaries. Perhaps the cloak discussed this year? (relic: 1 save of your choice is +6, the other 2 are +3. Legendary, one save +8 the other 2 +5). For this one year, also drop the requirement for a wish ring / 15k gold and add extra trade goods worth appx the same amount.

The approximate cost of the Relics / legendaries don't have to change to also end up draining trade goods.

Auctions will probably be really profitable in 2022 since the first tokens in the sets replacing the Teeth and Orbs will be in really high demand. I wouldn't be surprised if PYP prices then dip a bit as a result.

I don’t know about that.

The first year of the teeth the teeth were going for 60-75 each.

The dragon orbs have been pretty consistent at ~500 in preorders.

Matthew Hayward wrote: I don’t know about that.

The first year of the teeth the teeth were going for 60-75 each.

The dragon orbs have been pretty consistent at ~500 in preorders.

When I was looking, the first year of teeth were about 75, but the second and third year jumped up to about 100. I’m not sure if this just had to do with how many people were running auctions or who was running those auctions or if it was more a matter of people still trying to figure out the value of these tokens in those earlier years as auctions like that were still newer and this was only the second 7 year transmute.

Maybe in 2022 the next 7 yr 1k transmute will be higher in value as it will be the third one and in 2023 when/if the second 7 yr 8k transmute starts, it might be worth even more depending on how the two dragon transmutes are received.

Not to derail to much, but I think TD could solve some if its trade good imbalance issues if it were to borrow a concept from Catan and allow one type of trade good to be traded in for another through ports. IE if the community feels we are over loaded on dark wood planks why not just have the transmute room open up a 1 year recipe that allows planks to be traded in say 3:1 for Dwarven steel (or something that is in high demand for a recipe that will soon go out of print). There is no net cost to TD, and we already have the logistics in place from transmutes. Seems like it would just let the market balance itself.

We could also borrow an idea from warcraft and create a community "war effort" quest where something will happen once the entire community at large turns in say 1000 philosophers stones, 1000 mystic silks, and 2000 darkwood planks. You don't get anything for turning them in other then to maybe see a total rise on a website but everyone can feel like they are contributing to the community quest. Perhaps when its done TPTB could do something like a community wide (could be a great way to move our characters from 4-5 to 5-6th level). Additionally you could do something like everyone who contributed gets a form tag, or some number of entries in a draw for a special event. Maybe the top contributor could be next years Gorgon. Lots of possibilities.

Anyway just brain storming.

Picc wrote: Not to derail to much, but I think TD could solve some if its trade good imbalance issues if it were to borrow a concept from Catan and allow one type of trade good to be traded in for another through ports. IE if the community feels we are over loaded on dark wood planks why not just have the transmute room open up a 1 year recipe that allows planks to be traded in say 3:1 for Dwarven steel (or something that is in high demand for a recipe that will soon go out of print). There is no net cost to TD, and we already have the logistics in place from transmutes. Seems like it would just let the market balance itself.

My friends and I have been talking about something like this for a while now. We were thinking about a point system. 1 Mystic Silk = 1 point, etc. The trade good you want cost X points.
This way any trade good can be picked up that you need, while getting rid of those pesky MS and PS tokens.

DrStupid v1.0 wrote:

Picc wrote: Not to derail to much, but I think TD could solve some if its trade good imbalance issues if it were to borrow a concept from Catan and allow one type of trade good to be traded in for another through ports. IE if the community feels we are over loaded on dark wood planks why not just have the transmute room open up a 1 year recipe that allows planks to be traded in say 3:1 for Dwarven steel (or something that is in high demand for a recipe that will soon go out of print). There is no net cost to TD, and we already have the logistics in place from transmutes. Seems like it would just let the market balance itself.

My friends and I have been talking about something like this for a while now. We were thinking about a point system. 1 Mystic Silk = 1 point, etc. The trade good you want cost X points.
This way any trade good can be picked up that you need, while getting rid of those pesky MS and PS tokens.

I think there are 2 keys to the idea, first to keep it as simple as possible so as to not add more burden to the already busy transmuters, hence X:1 ports analogy. Second to make sure we are not getting "even" trades, we need to be giving more bulk then we are getting back in useful goods if the goal is to suck gluts out of the market.

Endgame wrote: Currently, I believe auctions are being driven by PYPs. There are a several slot expanders this year, the new arcanum item, etc where people are supporting nearly half the cost of an 8k auction through PYPs. Add in a dragon orb, teeth, etc, and trade goods don't have to sell for a very high price to complete the auction. Next year will probably be a similar story - second arcanum item, Platnium Nugget, final teeth, and final(?) dragon orb will prop up auction prices.

For the following year (2022) there could be a significant change to the Ultra Rares offered and Relic Recipies that could drive auctions to be trade good centric, and I think this would be the ideal way to resolve the extra trade goods issue (if there is one - the only place that silk is going for $1 or less is auctions. IF the market was super saturated, it would be that price everywhere). For example:

Issue 18 Reprints for that year - some reprints will still probably be frequently purchased (ex Mithral Gauntlets), and some less so (charm necklace). For the relics and legendaries, don't include a UR in the recipie, just use some extra trade goods, and issue some interesting usable by all legendaries. Perhaps the cloak discussed this year? (relic: 1 save of your choice is +6, the other 2 are +3. Legendary, one save +8 the other 2 +5). For this one year, also drop the requirement for a wish ring / 15k gold and add extra trade goods worth appx the same amount.

The approximate cost of the Relics / legendaries don't have to change to also end up draining trade goods.

I wanted to focus on the last part of Endgame's post. But wanted to keep the entire post intact in my quote.

I agree 100% with the statement that the recipe cost of Relics/Legendaries should not be affected by what is reported out in the market. There should be a set formula for how the recipes are created. Or at least, a solid guideline to how to create them.
I love that community feedback is part of what drives the game design. But I worry that things like recipes for Relics and Legendaries might be, in part, influenced by what the community reports as overages of certain trade goods. I would think that type of influence should be avoided since the community will vary in terms of have/have not.
If there is an imbalance of trade goods in the community, it could be addressed by the point system I mentioned in my previous post.

Where I do think the influence for trade good recipes should stem from is the average token availability from an order of that year's tokens. And a secondary influence should be if those tokens are meant as consumable or not. This way the recipes are focused on what is available with purchases from that set, and perhaps the next years set.
NOTE: This idea is more for the focus of the Relic recipes. I get that Legendaries have unlimited time to be crafted. But the Relics have that 2-year window. So I think the recipes should be created with the sets of those 2 years in mind.

Just my 2 cents

Picc wrote: Not to derail to much, but I think TD could solve some if its trade good imbalance issues if it were to borrow a concept from Catan and allow one type of trade good to be traded in for another through ports. IE if the community feels we are over loaded on dark wood planks why not just have the transmute room open up a 1 year recipe that allows planks to be traded in say 3:1 for Dwarven steel (or something that is in high demand for a recipe that will soon go out of print). There is no net cost to TD, and we already have the logistics in place from transmutes. Seems like it would just let the market balance itself.

We could also borrow an idea from warcraft and create a community "war effort" quest where something will happen once the entire community at large turns in say 1000 philosophers stones, 1000 mystic silks, and 2000 darkwood planks. You don't get anything for turning them in other then to maybe see a total rise on a website but everyone can feel like they are contributing to the community quest. Perhaps when its done TPTB could do something like a community wide (could be a great way to move our characters from 4-5 to 5-6th level). Additionally you could do something like everyone who contributed gets a form tag, or some number of entries in a draw for a special event. Maybe the top contributor could be next years Gorgon. Lots of possibilities.

Anyway just brain storming.

I've long thought if some way was created to transfer one type of trade token to others, it would help resolve any glut situations.

Regarding your second suggestion, I like the idea of some big community effort where once some huge amount of trade item tokens were turned in, some sort of TD wide thing was unlocked for everyone. It's a very cooperative community, something like that might work really well.