TOPIC: NFL survival pool my donated token revealed

Ro-gan wrote:

bpsymington wrote: According to 538.com, the team with the best chance of winning last week is the Bengals over the Browns. Then again, it predicted a Steeler win last week (stupid Steelers!), and it's predicting that they will beat the Pats this week - without Big Ben! WTF?

You know pretty much all those analysts know nothing about playing football? They just crunch numbers. You can't pick that way, by reading what they say. You can take it into account but don't rely on it.

You have to actually watch the games and study the players. The biggest things are:

Team rivalries
Contract years
Heart
Injuries
Previous week


That's just to name a few things to look for when deciding your pick(s).

Divisional teams
Teams coming off bye weeks
Head to Head coaching match ups
WR vs. Cornerback pairings
Defensive weaknesses

and the list goes on........

You're all over complicating the process. The key to winning a survival pool is to pick a team each week that will win.

You can pick a team based on "heart," and that's all well and good, and then Roethlisberger goes out with an injury. A survival pool little more than a coin flip each week. Since you can't choose the same team twice, you can't just pick whoever the Browns are playing.

Look, they tell you week to week who other people are picking. Those picks represent a combination of instinct, heart and rigorous analysis. They'll tell you the top pick based on computer analysis. You can tell who the top picks are based on Vegas odds which represent where people are putting up hard cash to say who think will win. So whatever "system" you have, you can also see who the thousands of other "systems" are picking. And then you can still get it wrong. Systems just help you determine odds and then it still comes down to luck.

And this week, I choose poorly. And then there were 4. Good luck folks.

I hate it when I don't follow my own advice!

Good luck to the final four!

Should have gone with the city with the better symphony.

bpsymington wrote: You can pick a team based on "heart," and that's all well and good, and then Roethlisberger goes out with an injury. A survival pool little more than a coin flip each week. Since you can't choose the same team twice, you can't just pick whoever the Browns are playing.

Actually you can.

You can't - three teams play them twice.

Don't they also have a bye week?

Dave wrote: Don't they also have a bye week?

Every team gets a Bye Week.

bpsymington wrote: You can't - three teams play them twice.

But you can.